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TraderDan1 OP t1_j293xc6 wrote

As per the moderator, my rationale for playing these puts, and most of my option plays, are based on statistical analysis of morning gaps. I have developed my own algorithm that tells me the probability of any instrument backfilling and closing its morning gap within 1-5 days. If the gap is right, and has not been filled within the first hour I begin to look at a 5 day CALL or PUT at the level of the previous day's closing price. I only do it when I have the right gap size (enough profit) and 80% or higher probability of gap fill based on my program.

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RobertsonvsPhillips t1_j29dwrr wrote

Big brain shit! How's your performance since starting your program?

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TraderDan1 OP t1_j29opmr wrote

This is only one strategy that I use for short term stuff. I'm pretty conservative really and work with a flavor of the general "wheel" strategy. This doesn't provide me trades every day. With that said, I've been using this method for almost 3 years, and the aggregate of my trades in this way have produced 80% winning trades within 3 days. If my profit reaches greater than 50% I close it. Some days, like today, it really popped right at the open so I jumped in to close my QQQ as quickly as possible. Average profit on each winning trade is 27%.

Again, the morning gap level, that is the previous day's closing price is a magnet in general. Now if a stock gaps 5% or higher in one day, the likelihood of backfilling it becomes statistically less likely, so I'm looking for gaps that are between 1-2% in size, maybe 3% and plan for a 5 DTE.

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