0x11C3P t1_j24lfv7 wrote
About 20% more before it starts trending back up.
4troglodyte t1_j24onyi wrote
What is the basis of your expectation for a 20% leg down from here? Have you included AWS expectations in your calculus? Thanks
0x11C3P t1_j24pb1o wrote
Dwindling e-commerce. AWS no longer growing at growth valuation rate. Increased borrowing costs. Overcapacity. Looming recession. Fed rates not being cut till end of 2023/early 2024.
I made a model after their last disappointing earnings and with certain guesstimates, I came to somewhere 20% below from here.
I'm not saying it'll go straight down from here. There will be choppiness but I gather it'll hit somewhere near bottom around 20% as they try and finally cut some overhead.
4troglodyte t1_j24r0a8 wrote
I appreciate your DD and thoughts about the trajectory of the stock. I entered into my first position beginning last Thursday and Friday. I added another 100 shares yesterday and hoped to add another 100 shares today but it has lifted back off this morning. I want to hold a small 700 share position (600 now) and stay long for 24 months barring black swan. I concede AWS penetration has slowed but don’t believe it is adequately valued in overall stock price. I stand by recovery to $170 by first quarter of 2025. Thanks for taking a minute to help me understand your premiss🙏🏻
0x11C3P t1_j24rync wrote
If you believe in the company, just DCA into it. I could be wrong as I'm not a wizard. I just feel the era of growth companies is gone for the time being and most growth companies, if they survive, won't hit recent high valuations for years.
Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j27bul4 wrote
The problem with handling Amazon earnings since EOY 2021 is that shit stick RIVN bet they marked to market for a blowout Q4 and then got massacred in Q1 2022 on.
The fact is that Amazon's revenue has doubled since 2017/2018, which is the last time you could buy the equity at $85ish. Considering they figured they could cut 20,000 people, I imagine they have plenty of net income they can squeeze out before their core businesses start to suffer.
If it does drop another 20%, I will be pleased as punch because that means I will virtually triple my money over the next 3-5 years.
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