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Sbmagnolia t1_j2ay4rl wrote

Fed is expected to cut the rates in the future (late 2023 or early 2024). There is no way this system can survive with current or increasing rates on a long term basis. Your long term bond train left the station in October and I don’t think we are going to see 10 year treasury notes touching 5% in our lifetime.

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kugelblitz_100 t1_j2axcw0 wrote

You're missing that it's not possible to tell when the Fed has stopped raising rates without a time machine. Even if inflation gets low and the Fed says they'll stop raising rates, how do you know inflation won't rise in 6 months or a year and they'll have to start raising rates again?

Look at inflation in the 70's: Got high, went low, got high, then got really high for several years.

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Tyr312 t1_j2azmq0 wrote

Bonds are and have been dead

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faratto_ t1_j2b43i3 wrote

Nothing. But February will be the last hike (and only if macro data won't continue to fall as we're seeing), gas prices are already priced before Russian invasion and Europe is already fucked on his own, next year we could see deflation already before summer

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VisualMod t1_j2arssk wrote

>You're missing the fact that I'm rich and therefore better than you. Also, long term bonds are a bad investment right now because interest rates are still rising.

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