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robbinhood69 t1_j22rl8r wrote

Reply to comment by Realistic_Weight_703 in Thoughts on Buying Puts for Home Construction companies by Realistic_Weight_703

so this is a good point, builders with regional presence might be fucked. I think ackman is fuckign himself with his Howard Hughes home building play, they mostly build in Vegas, Phoenix, Texas, they are fucking fucked those markets are all down -20% already what's to stop them from going another -20%

KBH and TOL do have exposure to cratering markets, but they also have exposure elsewhere, including multifamily residential in cities...they can rotate around and print money thru whatever is next in the economy. We have an undersupply of homes coz no one built shit after GFC, airbnb hosts going wild obviously is contributing a little to make this a "shortage" and those airbnb hosts will capitulate, but even if/when they do it's not gonna make up for the structural deficit

we are in populist politic regime, millenials are gonna vote for politicians that keep helicoptering money for new home builds so we can all have our picket fence and fluffy doggie

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tngman10 t1_j22tgmc wrote

I'm seeing here about an hour outside of Nashville. The prices are dropping fast and and slowly creeping inwards. The same way they shot up in Nashville and then radiated outwards to the suburbs they are now dropping in the suburbs and moving inwards.

I was helping a family member look back in February and there was literally only 1 listing in our county. And it was a 30-year old trailer selling for $200k. I looked a couple weeks ago and there was 58 listings and there were several older 3-bedrooms in the $140k range. Same thing with my house the "zestimate" on Zillow had it at $330k back in February today its $240k.

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robbinhood69 t1_j22w7wa wrote

so TOL average home selling price is 1mil

idk who makes the lower priced housing, but the luxury end of housing is keeping up in enough markets that builders can maintain their margins

the key is understanding that homebuilder costs went up a bajillion % when they were competing with speculators and flippers. Now their costs are cratering as the price insensitve speculators get fucked, so even if home prices crater, they can still maintain margin

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