TSLA - Make or break moment? Q4 Deliveries and Earnings

Submitted by Bukkakecat t3_zzcce2 in wallstreetbets

What's in store for Monday, Jan 2 when deliveries are announced and will we see pretty significant +/- momentum leading up to Jan 25 earnings?

Q4 deliveries are estimated to be 429,000, but with the China giga shut-down, are we expecting a big miss or will general demand and the Berlin and Austin giga ramp-up help with a beat? Even if they meet target, that would still be up 43% or so from 2021. Growth and demand is expected to slow in 2023, without a doubt, but I believe the $7500 discount was to drive some sales before year-end in anticipation of the $7500 EV tax credit available next year, rather than a severe plunge in demand.

During the Q3 earnings call, Musk expects an epic and record-breaking Q4. Is this as believable as Musk not selling any more shares

I am not good at reading tea-leaves and drawing magical lines like many others. But it seems there could be a massive run up or draw down in the coming weeks, even if it is short-term.

Calls or puts?

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Comments

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life_of_guac t1_j2ar78g wrote

I have puts so im probably wrong

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0Rider t1_j2b0bz2 wrote

I have puts too.

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swordluk t1_j2b4fe3 wrote

So calls, it's 2:2, how about going both ways?

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OB1KENOB t1_j2b60mp wrote

Everyone thinks it’ll go down, so it’ll probably go either up or down.

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Andylovespussy t1_j2arpiw wrote

I am certain of a massive sell off come Monday!

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Bukkakecat OP t1_j2askcf wrote

What makes you so sure?

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[deleted] t1_j2avknp wrote

[deleted]

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Andylovespussy t1_j2axqjd wrote

I meant on 3rd. The deliveries numbers are below 400k

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oarabbus t1_j2brq83 wrote

and you know that how

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Andylovespussy t1_j2dmiq8 wrote

I’ll get in trouble for telling how!

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oarabbus t1_j2epoeq wrote

lmao like we're supposed to believe you work for tesla and are slipping WSBers the secret sauce that deliveries missed target

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phlash999 t1_j2b28hj wrote

Demand is slowing down. Musk said on his Investor Twitter Spaces they'll need to cut more into margins to sell enough cars to meet supply. They were going to miss Q4 deliveries for sure so they're pushing scheduled Q1 deliveries to take before eoy.

Maybe the push is enough to save Q4, maybe not. No one knows. But Q1 is going to be really interesting.

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hangem683 t1_j2b9ye7 wrote

At what time are they releasing the numbers?

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Whythehellnot_wecan t1_j2bk1lx wrote

Jan 20 $140c. Come on!

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Bukkakecat OP t1_j2bm5js wrote

Why Jan 20?

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Whythehellnot_wecan t1_j2bqjkf wrote

Bought earlier this week for $5, day before the last drop I think so missed $2.50ish. Hoping for good delivery numbers, a new years market bounce, and because pre-earnings hoped to gain some IV towards the end before if it goes tits up or stays stable. Thought process anyway. Seen it as high as $4.50 yesterday and today. Seems like the sellers have sold. Just a couple contracts but could use a winner. Never owned TSLA but wanted in on the fun.

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Bukkakecat OP t1_j2brwxr wrote

I'm leaning this way as well. The recent sell off seemed like capitulation. There seem to be plenty of other companies with slower growth and higher valuations so not sure how much of this is driven by noise.

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macdaddywdf t1_j2b86g4 wrote

Seeing many Teslers (that's how we say it) down here with temporary tags. Elon's hard right tack my have paid off.

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Proud_Reserve3029 t1_j2bchpw wrote

The forward guidance which musk offers is the key. To moon or doom

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Bukkakecat OP t1_j2bmcew wrote

He was pretty bearish on macro during twitter spaces. But he did mention some options were to reduce prices to maintain growth.

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tex8222 t1_j2bpp9r wrote

The real proof of direction will be the upcoming quarter. We shall see if Teala continues to post huge percentage increases compared to 2022..

As long as sales continue to increase by 50% or more compared to the same quarter for the prior year, everything will be fine.

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AccomplishedLie6360 t1_j2c8nd9 wrote

Agree Q1 forward guidance

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Stutteringstew t1_j2clo4i wrote

China plant will be down for an extended time due to the Chinese new year. I believe it is 11 days Jan 20 - 31 which will hurt Q1 numbers. I believe he said he was also going to do layoffs in the beginning of 2023.

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tex8222 t1_j2drvvs wrote

A large part Tesla valuation is due to their high growth rate. If growth slows, they become ‘just another car company’ and should be valued accordingly.

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FDrecruit t1_j2bsfkm wrote

Have a bunch of Jan 13 calls I feel Tesla is going to have a run up beginning 2023

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Bukkakecat OP t1_j2bslrr wrote

What do you think will be the catalyst?

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FDrecruit t1_j2by7nf wrote

I mean I think he’s going to meet the deliveries for end of year which is a big one it’s also lowest in 2 years which is a big deal to investors with money most ev companies don’t have the cash flow and are constantly burning money which could end in bankruptcy so Tesla for sure will lead ev in 2023

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stockrot t1_j2ec50a wrote

I own some Tesla and a lot of Ford. Here is what I see as problem with the Car business. The ultra low interest car loans are gone except for some less in demand gas hogs. So people who would just impulse buy a new ride in a banging economy ,think twice in a sketchy environment when they see a 6% plus car note, they make their current ride do

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telperiontree t1_j2bbn5z wrote

earnings are always a shitshow. with the macro background, a beat may not be enough to truly bounce the stock

but there’s usually sufficient volatility in reaction to earnings to make money either way you bet.

aka, I go with high chop for stock outcome

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2022peace t1_j2csfl3 wrote

They haven’t really updated their line up for years, bearish for me

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IPractiseAlchemy t1_j2e4aap wrote

That doesn’t change the fact the model 3/Y are one of the best selling vehicles in Europe given they started producing cars in 2009.

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That-Whereas3367 t1_j2f1loc wrote

LOL. The big sales were due to massive subsides, expensive fuel and cheap electricity.

The situation has changed totally - oil is cheap, electricity is very expensive and the subsides are being phased out. It now costs more to charge an EV than to fill a tank in many European countries.

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terrybmw335 t1_j2e7rov wrote

I sold puts. Hoping it stays above $100 for the next few months.

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VisualMod t1_j2aqedj wrote

>I don't have a strong opinion on whether to buy calls or puts at this juncture. However, I would keep an eye on the $7500 discount and the EV tax credit as potential catalysts for price movement in either direction.

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theDoc888 t1_j2b8zry wrote

I am on put

Most of the time I am wrong 😂

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ruoaayn t1_j2c70cw wrote

Just buy straddles and play both directions

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UltimateTraders t1_j2c0q06 wrote

Musk is a pathological liar with asperger a mental defect close to autism

Look it up

I'm staying away.. calls at 100 puts at 200 for me

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