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d_HOME t1_j1knc9a wrote

When will rate hike stop? July? Or Sept?

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SparrowTale t1_j1kpxln wrote

JPow mentioned this month that the target rate is 5.1%. Since the current fed rate is 4.25-4.50%, we are looking at maybe another two hikes of 0.25% each, likely in Feb and Mar.

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1kqz0l wrote

I have a feeling that omnibus spending bill is going to create more inflation.

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1lsmft wrote

why? its totally in line with other omnibus bills

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1lsoag wrote

also half of it is millitary and Ukraine which got 0.0 to do with inflation

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1m93zi wrote

That money is making lot of people rich.

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1m9hmu wrote

yeah sure i guess but in no means contributes to inflation

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KyivComrade t1_j1o1ewp wrote

People whos money is sent offshore to a tax paradise, whoem written off as a mysterious loss here. Money sent to be hoarded in a digital world by the ruling elite...they won capitalism.

Now of you happen to give some money to a normal citizen, one who actually works and produces something, it'll lead to inflation and thus is bad. Food, housing, everything has risen sky high...but me preserving 1/10th of my purchasing power is bad and "dangerous". Mr billionaire getting another few billions is good. 🤡

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Goosnavslakovic t1_j1nt4gt wrote

Money circulates. For example, SBF donated to the DNC, many politicians opted to send billions to Ukraine, Ukraine and its citizens made heavy use of crypto, and guess how much of that FTX was involved with? Saying that money is going to another country so therefore not a problem is extremely shortsighted behavior. That completely dismisses money velocity which allows the dollar to be devalued through its circulation which can easily make its way back to the US. Remember MV=PQ

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1nwd0b wrote

Okay thats just a bunch of nonsense… In no way if even a tiny amount of money really took this path it still had 0 influence on inflation

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1luarb wrote

Like which ones?

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1m75kr wrote

you know these happen like nearly every year right?

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1m7wq1 wrote

Not worth $1.7 trillion

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1nwlzl wrote

2021 omnibus 2.3 Trillion 2022 1.5 Trillion this one 1.7 trillion 2020

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1o5x2x wrote

That also correlates with the highest inflation for the past year over year. When governments blow out the spending you get inflation. Just look at Venezuela’s inflation.

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Mourinholib99 t1_j1o6ebm wrote

don’t hit me with these talking points man. Of course to much spending can lead to inflation, obviously. 2021 was because Corona and the reaction (for better or for worse) needed a lot more social spending. my point is that this omnibus is extremely ordinary and will have 0 influence of the baseline inflation expectations.

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jr1tn t1_j1kq5vg wrote

So far, the Fed has been 100 percent incorrect in their predictions about their own hiks and future rates. But, you think this time is different?

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SparrowTale t1_j1kqh1g wrote

Hence using words like “maybe” and “likely”. Ain’t nobody can tell us the future 100%.

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Noodleface00 t1_j1kyygx wrote

Jerome Powell said even when they stop rate hike they going to keep rate at 5.1% till 2024

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Neerko_bat t1_j1ljbg4 wrote

Wait, did you actually Listen to what daddy JPow was saying? That means you're one of the smarterst WSB users.

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nyse125 t1_j1lm7gj wrote

Some of us actually read the SEP but all 11 members' aggregate suggests 4.6% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024. Not bullish in the slightest either.

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Unknownirish t1_j1lxq1h wrote

I actual listen to jpow religiously and he seems stance on no rate cuts until he feels like it folks

want the year? 2025

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wsbSIMP t1_j1mi5z4 wrote

This info is outdated though.

The new dot plot has most of the votes for 5%+ terminal rate for 2023. Some have 5.25 and others just 5.1

Source

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nyse125 t1_j1mnfxv wrote

No I'm talking about the September projection

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Hacking_the_Gibson t1_j1m1or6 wrote

They are going to break something before then.

The layoffs in white collar jobs are going to accelerate and then comes defaults.

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viperex t1_j1q3vo0 wrote

How long they hold it there will depend on the target inflation the Fed wants to reach. The question is will JPow hold to that 2% target or will he settle for higher? Some talking heads say he should look at up to 4%

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1knljr wrote

I predict it’ll be the middle of the year at the earliest, so hopefully by July

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whicky1978 OP t1_j1koz4f wrote

Not that I’m particularly smart I just heard Dan Niles saying on TV

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Shapen361 t1_j1mskda wrote

Fed funds futures point to I think May. This could change as the year progresses.

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ramsfan00 t1_j1l2zuu wrote

July. Well enter a recession around April - May. People just wont stop spending so the fed will keep raising rates.

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