The real uncertainty in my eyes is China and COVID. How many people will die? Will it kill their labor force like it did in the US? Are they replaceable or will they have to suffer through some employment participation rate issues? Will they spread it outside their borders?

Because China is such a black box when it comes to data, it's hard to tell. Also don't know how many times they'll end up closing down factories because a dozen or so people infected the entire factory. Also don't know when they'll finally accept other vaccines like from PFE that are actually efficient compared to Sinovac.

In the end, all the China news will just add volatility that's hard to predict. General thesis remains the same.