AMZN is a buy.

Submitted by Adossi t3_zy6sjy in wallstreetbets

  1. CES 2023 on Jan 5th.
  2. Earnings Feb 1st.
  3. Last years Feb earnings was the biggest move in stock market history (+14%).
  4. CPI Jan 12th.
  5. UMICH Jan 13th.
  6. New 52W low.
  7. They pump the stock Feb/March because the number stock refreshers to employees is based on average Feb share price.
  8. Consensus EPS is a softball.
  9. Cost-cutting happening right now (layoffs 10%, Alexa deprioritized).

If you think 2023 is a pivot year, AMZN is a based choice right now. That's all. Yours try,

  • a regard
39

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VisualMod t1_j240qi0 wrote

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Hey /u/Adossi, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit.

1

VisualMod t1_j240rbg wrote

>1. I believe that CES 2023 will be a very important event for Amazon. They are likely to unveil new products and services that could have a major impact on their business. 2. Earnings for Amazon in February could also be extremely significant, as they will provide updated guidance for the year ahead. 3. Last year's February earnings were the biggest move in stock market history (+14%), so there is potential for more upside this time around if results are strong again. 4 CPI data from January 12th will be closely watched by investors as it can give clues about inflationary pressure in the economy which may impact Amazon's margins going forward 5 UMICH consumer sentiment data due on January 13th could also shed some light on how consumers are feeling about spending money online 6 If AMZN shares continue to fall and make new 52-week lows, this could trigger further selling pressure 7 Some analysts believe that employees at Amazon receive stock refreshers based on the average share price during February, so there may be some positive buying activity around this time 8 The consensus EPS estimate for Amazon is currently $1532 , which represents decent growth from last year 9 Finally, cost-cutting measures taken by management recently (such as layoffs of 10% of staff) suggest that they are focused on improving profitability

5

Adossi OP t1_j240sn0 wrote

inb4 high P/E bro how bout you get dis high PP??

−1

Adossi OP t1_j24dtod wrote

Replying to rylar (#1,148,397)

Cramerisms don't work when he casts a wide net like that. It's only when he picks a stock. Also that was like 2 weeks ago. All of those got crushed since then

−6

MarkyMolasses t1_j24i9il wrote

I’m in 600 shares @ $36~ already do i rly need mOre

−4

007Leon t1_j24k5d5 wrote

Still a little early i think.

2

SurfAccountQuestion t1_j24s9dt wrote

AMZN is the only big tech I don’t hold individually. AWS is king but I don’t like the retail part of the brand.

1

Adossi OP t1_j24sfur wrote

Replying to Capable-Chicken-6878 (#1,150,065)

Maybe if Bezos buys an unprofitable social media company and sells shares to cover the cost then fires 75% of staff all the while Amazon delivery trucks are running over pedestrians and bursting into flames trapping the drivers inside

21

CriticDanger t1_j2507s2 wrote

When qqq goes down, every tech companies go down, and we're still in a bear market. Nothing specific to Amazon will matter until the trend reverses.

4

HerrBro t1_j254x3r wrote

lets see what happens img

!remindme on february 2 2023

4

bingbong90001 t1_j25ab5w wrote

#1 - 1/2 of these are not catalysts lol .... CES ? our team is meeting with our amazon buyer at CES. This is our 3rd new buyer in 6 months, turn over is real and the buyers have no fkin clue what they're doing. CES is getting smaller every year because its really not a valuable show to attend, most of the stuff is prototype shit thats not even available for sale. with amazon's fee structure every company is actively trying to find more ways to sell on every platform except amazon. AWS is the only thing saving them.
#2-#3 doesnt mean its going to be good...
#4 CPI could go either way
#6 It can always go lower P/E still way out of line for new era of value stocks

I'd be more interested at $60/share or less

15

Spare-Competition-91 t1_j25fifm wrote

OP apparently doesn't read the news about how people are abandoning Amazon due to them not providing diverse products. They act now like an ad service. I seriously do not like shopping on there anymore. Too many fake reviews, too many promoted products, too many hurdles to buy something I want. I still shop there, but they are starting to show their weakness.

0

aka0007 t1_j25kz9x wrote

I hate dumb lists... It reminds me of some people with political discussions who have lists of irrelevant things to post in response to any reasonable discussion, even if the list makes no sense.

Now, to be clear I think AMZN is a great company and have invested in them before and made good money if that investment, but I did sell a little while back because I was having trouble with the value case for them (not that my other investments did much better, but felt it was time to pull out of AMZN...).

So let's take a look at your list for the heck of it.

  1. CES 2023 on Jan 5th. - Who cares. This is an annual event that has zero impact on the long-term fundamentals of AMZN.
  2. Earnings Feb 1st. - And so? Every company that has declined in value had earnings at some time or another as well as every company that has gone up. It is just a day that info may come out that will move the price, not a guarantee which way.
  3. Last years Feb earnings was the biggest move in stock market history (+14%). - As they say in investing... prior results do not guarantee future performance.
  4. CPI Jan 12th. - So invest one way or another in SPY as that reflects the impact of CPI better than an individual stock.
  5. UMICH Jan 13th. - No clue what this means
  6. New 52W low. - Whoopee doo... Every stock before it reaches it current 52 week low, reached a prior one... which means nothing. Stocks can go up or down regardless of lows or highs.
  7. They pump the stock Feb/March because the number stock refreshers to employees is based on average Feb share price. - Ok... not even going to bother with this.
  8. Consensus EPS is a softball. - I think the consensus for Q4 is $0.20, which comes to under $1 annualized, which means AMZN is trading at a 85X+ PE ratio.
  9. Cost-cutting happening right now (layoffs 10%, Alexa deprioritized). - cost cutting is necessary but perhaps sales will be down and profits impacted in any case... meaning the cost-cutting is keeping things afloat as opposed to making them profitable.

My take... maybe it goes up, maybe it goes down... definitely this DD you have done is crap though.

Maybe try real DD next time... Like if you exclude AWS from the picture, AMZN lost $10 billion in the last 12 months. Or how if you exclude AWS, AMZN barely makes money. As to AWS, during the last few years growth was very strong, but has recently slowed down. In any case would take several years of strong growth to justify even current share prices. Basically an investment in AMZN is a bet that they can turn their retail business not a massive money-maker and that AWS will continue to show strong growth for the next 5 years. My guess is Q4 will not answer these questions and will leave a lot of doubt as to the future potential of AMZN and if it can grow fast enough to justify the share price.

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opiablame t1_j25my5j wrote

I think AMZN will be below $50 a share by end of March.

2

nedfromcal t1_j26280p wrote

It probably won’t go to zero in 2023

2

H0lland0ats t1_j26419p wrote

I've read your posts and comments on this subreddit basically shilling META AMZN and other shitty growth stocks. Why not just buy ARK?

How you want to invest is your business, but I would strongly caution others on investing in anything with a PE over 50 in this rate environment. Between QT and the erasure of consumer spending power, this is a very long play. Be prepared to buy and hold for 2 to 3 years for 15%. Call options are going to be straight gambling over the 1 year timeline.

1

H0lland0ats t1_j268rws wrote

Replying to Adossi (#1,161,916)

Not really. You are on here making posts with no positions, that are presented as long plays, and with weak DD.

Just because you made money (if) on a half day movement on META does NOT make you correct unless you presented it as a play in that timeline.

Gambling and investing are different.

−2

Adossi OP t1_j268wjw wrote

Replying to H0lland0ats (#1,162,109)

I have a position it was my 2nd comment in this thread. Half day movement on META? It was 124 earlier in December. Are you a bot? You sound like VisualMod with negative sentiment dialled to the max.

1

H0lland0ats t1_j269sy0 wrote

Replying to Adossi (#1,162,144)

March calls is a "2023 pivot year" right after Christmas earnings release for Q4 2022?

Hahahaha..ok dude.

How about some calls at the end of the "pivot year".

Better yet buy some stock and then talk about fucking pivots.

0

H0lland0ats t1_j26doah wrote

Replying to Adossi (#1,162,144)

Are you telling me there was a point between Either this or last December where META was up 40%?? Because again..a simple look at their performance over last 12 months makes this straight up bullshit.

You on some Cathie Woods cope train.

It's ok though. I'll be buying this shit off you for pennies on the dollar at the fire sale.

0

MakingChanges77 t1_j26j796 wrote

I like Amazon as a company and a stock. I’m just wary of many tech stocks right now and am mostly cash until we see the bottom.

6

Muggrohh t1_j26oobw wrote

A lot of people posted long responses to OP. Some were probably bullish and some were probably regayted.

I bought calls.

87 expiry jan 2024.

Let this confirm your bias or ignore if it doesn't

2

kesto303 t1_j26xzs8 wrote

I said that a couple weeks ago and it dipped another $10

1

_Kenway t1_j27gawy wrote

AMZN is in the top15 highest PEG ratio (5.99) of S&P 500 components

PEG = price earnings to growth ratio, <1 = optimal

1

WorkingCorrect1062 t1_j27i2ik wrote

Two posts about AMZN on wsb, pretty sure it continues to go down coz buy the dip regards think it is a good deal when they can't even make money

0

Able-Confection-4851 t1_j27io3i wrote

Replying to rylar (#1,148,397)

People don't give Jim enough credit. For all the stuff he was wrong about, he also claimed loudly and proudly that the apes were a bunch of Dorito crusted morons with shit for brains, and the degree to which this panned out is truly staggering.

5

jaja94s t1_j27sbcu wrote

This analysis is straight AIDS. Literally nothing you said is new to anyone with a brain. In other words, it’s priced in. “Last year’s earnings was the biggest move” are you kidding me? That’s actually one of your reasons for believing in the stock? So many things you named apply to the entire stock market - UMICH, CPI, etc. Why people like you feel the need to share stock analysis, when you probably live in your moms basement and have zero exposure to finance while you work two jobs at Wendy’s and AMC, is beyond me.

0

sakaloko t1_j285pdo wrote

Pack your bags fellas, this turned into r/stocks now, call me when the next DFV appear

0

thesilentsage216 t1_j2dl2rk wrote

I'm extremely late but !remindme 2 months "How has AMZN moved from 83-84ish?"

2

Sarfbot t1_j2fijfj wrote

Replying to aka0007 (#1,157,283)

I don’t disagree that OPs list is useless. You also brought up good points which I mostly agree with.

  1. One callout is that Alexa was a $6B+ cost losing business. They’ve cut down Alexa and devices investments completely.
  2. The pendulum of “growth vs cost efficiency” has fully swung towards efficiency now. With Andy’s recent email confirming cost cutting and layoffs in Q1 and possibly throughout the year, Amazon will be profitable. No doubt in my mind.

As large as Amazon is, I truly don’t know a more nimble tech company. When pressures to increase minimum wage rose, they made the decision literally over the weekend to raise their minimum wage to $15/hr. Friday the motion was discussed, Monday it was announced and the following week it was instated. For reference, Target and Disney committed to the same goal but said they’ll need 1-2+ years to implement this.

Another reference is the year before pandemic. They had pivoted to cost cutting and increased their EPS to $14/share, from negative EPS six quarters straight.

1