Submitted by mlamping t3_10pjbhi in wallstreetbets
AR475891 t1_j6l2j4i wrote
Reply to comment by animalover69 in Game Theory: The war will end soon, oil will plummet, Biden will get re-elected by mlamping
GOP has an old voter problem. They have basically put all their effort into making everyone under 45 hate them and roughly 55% of their national popular vote in 2020 was over 65. Sure some younger folks may have voted GOP in 2020 and will continue to do so but how many people do you think that voted for Biden in general during 2020 are likely to flip? Particularly young people?
Besides, roughly 55% of people who voted for trump last time were over 65 and his strongest voter demographic was silent gen members every year. In fact the only majority GOP voting group by age is over 65. Roughly 3 million people die a year naturally and that’s probably 98% old folks. Using the same participation rate of 70% for this demographic during the 2020 election They are looking to lose between 4.5-5 million voters due to deaths alone. These voters are being replaced by gen zers who vote 65 -35 Dem.
Not saying it’s impossible, but as long as the economy isnt in a deep recession DURING the election a GOP win is not likely.
YourFaceCausesMePain t1_j6llpp7 wrote
You mean all these tech companies laying off thousands of workers right now aren’t gonna sway some votes?
The economy sucks right now. And to fix it we have to have high unemployment. With so many layoffs, it’s not gonna be a bright election for the dems.
AR475891 t1_j6lpxmv wrote
I think in the past that may have been true, but things are so polarized now I would think it would have to be really really bad. The GOP fell flat on its face in 2022 in all of the states they would need to win the electoral college in 2024 in one of the worst political environments in history. Literally didn’t win a state wide race except the Nevada Gov election and that guy is not MAGA like Trump or Desantis.
YourFaceCausesMePain t1_j6ls55a wrote
The gop had terrible candidates. Look at Georgia. Kemp blew Abrams out of the water. Yet Walker was going nowhere. I think the GOP got too cocky and borked it up. Or, deliberately.
AR475891 t1_j6ltdv1 wrote
I mean Trump isn’t a terrible general election candidate? What is desantis offering people different than Trump? The GOP has a major issue in that their base has been radicalized to the point that their candidates must pass a purity test to get the nomination on things that make them unelectable.
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Abortion - who can win a presidential nomination for the gop without pushing for a national ban? You’ll probably even get a desperate Beto-Esque person pushing for a contraception ban.
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2020 Fraud - who can win the nomination without saying the 2020 election was stolen?
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Any nominee but Trump - do people really think Trump will quietly fade away if he doesn’t get the nomination? He will burn down the GOP or steal away a third of their voters at a minimum in a 3rd party run if he doesn’t get it.
Again, it’s not impossible but the GOP has put themselves in a tough corner. It’s not the 1990s anymore where both parties are basically the same and the majority of people will hold their nose again for Biden over pretty much any MAGA person.
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YourFaceCausesMePain t1_j6lv4r8 wrote
Trump won’t win a GOP election. Desantis would. He’s very conservative but not alt right. He’s what the GOP needs.
Abortion was ran out of the Supreme Court to stir shit up. Not enough people overly care about it. But it will make loud voices and that what the dems always need to win elections.
Fraud? Who care. Really. Who cares. The only way to secure an election is to win by a mile or win where it’s important.
Trump did one thing, he proved the dems have a weakness. However, I think it’s all just a game and someone else is pulling the strings. Makes us feel important and empowered.
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JMLobo83 t1_j6lh27z wrote
Don't forget most folks who died of Covid were over 65 conservatives, GOP or right-leaning independents. The GOP's real problem is suburban educated and working class women hate them.
[deleted] t1_j6logv2 wrote
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30dollarprofit t1_j6ldh2s wrote
Not gonna lie, I definitely voted for Biden for that stimmy check to throw on FD’s. Definitely voting DeSantis if he runs/wins the primary.
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