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[deleted] t1_j6omoed wrote

[deleted]

86

n1ck90z t1_j6onkj5 wrote

Campbell Harvey who basically introduced the yield curve as a recession indicator believes this time is a false positive

43

random-smile t1_j6p6st3 wrote

the classic “this time is different”

31

EnthusiasmOne5717 t1_j6p8n81 wrote

the classic survivorship bias - you just see the times when it wasnt different. and all the times it had a different outcome of course dont appear in your peer group data

5

Ak47killer122 t1_j6p7bbo wrote

Considering the limited data it could easily be different

3

MicroBadger_ t1_j6osbw4 wrote

Depth of inversion also doesn't mean worse recession as the dot com recession had a steeper inversion than 08. We could still have a mild recession vs Armageddon like the post wants to imply.

10

crom_laughs t1_j6oo1od wrote

and stocks never rally in a recession?

4

n1ck90z t1_j6oonxo wrote

That's another story. A recession would force FED to pause or cut rates, so it would still be difficult to predict the market

6

GnoiXiaK t1_j6oqy9o wrote

Repeat after me folks, Markets are forward looking. Everyone knew recession was coming...last year.

12

BillBob13 t1_j6ousxj wrote

And now everyone thinks stonks go up because we're (close to) done hiking rates...

4

zztop09 t1_j6p9t60 wrote

Now everyone thinks we’re going to have another sell off because everything lags. Ohh. Then we’ll have people who think we’ve finally hit the bottom.

1

Strappedkaos t1_j6pd5mk wrote

TLT gonna rip people's faces off

9

Strappedkaos t1_j6pdh80 wrote

But seriously algos are buying for last couple days full blast,maybe a short squeeze but we are in a recession and were 2008 timeline roughly.

But wait, there's MORE!

5

NeoFlagada t1_j6oqjhc wrote

Oh no, a random graph showing specific data almost nobody can interpret showing a line going down based on yet another range of dates. We're doomed!

7

[deleted] t1_j6p8gu5 wrote

Rip your puts, Sally

4

Big-Routine222 t1_j6pfm7n wrote

I still have expect a recession, but not this week

3

leoundercover t1_j6or8xm wrote

Youre going off the notion the market moves based off logic.

2

VisualMod t1_j6olutg wrote

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1

VisualMod t1_j6olvq6 wrote

1:17 4 FRED 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M) 2023-01-30: - -1.17 Percent Daily | Updated: Jan 30, 2023 1Y 5Y 10Y Max FRED - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1990 2000 2010 2020 We are here Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis E Share Links G in

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1

RBuckB t1_j6oob0q wrote

I'm Joe Noob investor and I'm ready to lose $$$! It's a whole new year and I'm feeling optimistic!

1

Fibocrypto t1_j6p432s wrote

So the 3 month Treasury yield needs to rise ?

0

davanger1980 t1_j6op3rv wrote

Look the percent crossed a line.

−1

chicagotim1 t1_j6pfj2w wrote

Notice how those things get higher during recessions not lower?

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JuniorConversation24 t1_j6oqrtu wrote

Makes no difference if it comes or not, at these prices it's buying season. Long term these prices are fantastic.

−3