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VisualMod t1_j6olvq6 wrote
1:17 4 FRED 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity (T10Y3M) 2023-01-30: - -1.17 Percent Daily | Updated: Jan 30, 2023 1Y 5Y 10Y Max FRED - 10-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Minus 3-Month Treasury Constant Maturity 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1990 2000 2010 2020 We are here Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis E Share Links G in
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Finaldecade t1_j6om04j wrote
- what
kidicaru59 t1_j6omauy wrote
Stonks only go up
[deleted] t1_j6omoed wrote
[deleted]
[deleted] t1_j6onhs1 wrote
[deleted]
n1ck90z t1_j6onkj5 wrote
Campbell Harvey who basically introduced the yield curve as a recession indicator believes this time is a false positive
crom_laughs t1_j6oo1od wrote
and stocks never rally in a recession?
RBuckB t1_j6oob0q wrote
I'm Joe Noob investor and I'm ready to lose $$$! It's a whole new year and I'm feeling optimistic!
n1ck90z t1_j6oonxo wrote
That's another story. A recession would force FED to pause or cut rates, so it would still be difficult to predict the market
davanger1980 t1_j6op3rv wrote
Look the percent crossed a line.
NeoFlagada t1_j6oqjhc wrote
Oh no, a random graph showing specific data almost nobody can interpret showing a line going down based on yet another range of dates. We're doomed!
JuniorConversation24 t1_j6oqrtu wrote
Makes no difference if it comes or not, at these prices it's buying season. Long term these prices are fantastic.
GnoiXiaK t1_j6oqy9o wrote
Repeat after me folks, Markets are forward looking. Everyone knew recession was coming...last year.
leoundercover t1_j6or8xm wrote
Youre going off the notion the market moves based off logic.
MicroBadger_ t1_j6osbw4 wrote
Depth of inversion also doesn't mean worse recession as the dot com recession had a steeper inversion than 08. We could still have a mild recession vs Armageddon like the post wants to imply.
Mlindopp t1_j6osf1q wrote
I did say that
Lucidcranium042 t1_j6osyxr wrote
Hell yeah! Lets go babies!!!
Lucidcranium042 t1_j6ot10u wrote
Grandpa?
Mlindopp t1_j6otaxc wrote
No, I'm your sicko uncle that gets drunk loves the asshole out of you.
Lucidcranium042 t1_j6othl2 wrote
Mmm i love you grandma
BillBob13 t1_j6ousxj wrote
And now everyone thinks stonks go up because we're (close to) done hiking rates...
Fibocrypto t1_j6p432s wrote
So the 3 month Treasury yield needs to rise ?
random-smile t1_j6p6st3 wrote
the classic “this time is different”
Ak47killer122 t1_j6p7bbo wrote
Considering the limited data it could easily be different
[deleted] t1_j6p8gu5 wrote
Rip your puts, Sally
EnthusiasmOne5717 t1_j6p8n81 wrote
the classic survivorship bias - you just see the times when it wasnt different. and all the times it had a different outcome of course dont appear in your peer group data
zztop09 t1_j6p9t60 wrote
Now everyone thinks we’re going to have another sell off because everything lags. Ohh. Then we’ll have people who think we’ve finally hit the bottom.
Strappedkaos t1_j6pd5mk wrote
TLT gonna rip people's faces off
Strappedkaos t1_j6pdh80 wrote
But seriously algos are buying for last couple days full blast,maybe a short squeeze but we are in a recession and were 2008 timeline roughly.
But wait, there's MORE!
AutoModerator t1_j6pdh94 wrote
Squeeze these nuts you fuckin nerd.
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chicagotim1 t1_j6pfj2w wrote
Notice how those things get higher during recessions not lower?
Big-Routine222 t1_j6pfm7n wrote
I still have expect a recession, but not this week
RowPuzzleheaded3590 t1_j6phxet wrote
AUC proves you wrong though. And this has a massive AUC brewing
RowPuzzleheaded3590 t1_j6pi8w9 wrote
It’s called the steepening and usually follows 3-6 months after inversions
VisualMod t1_j6olutg wrote
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