Submitted by DaddyDersch t3_10qbb4g in wallstreetbets
The day before FOMC generally speaking is a choppy range filled day. However today was probably one of the cleanest (yet slow/ small) straight bull trend days I have seen in a long time.
However, even more impressive than that is the fact that we had a nearly $2.75 pump during the last 30 minutes of trading. The total range of the day was $5.76 that means 50% of the total days range happened during the last 30 minutes of trading.
I generally like to swing calls into FOMC and when we touched 403.8 support during power hour almost opened calls but decided not to as I usually wait till after 4pm to open… today is one of those days that we should opened and then closed EOD. I decided to sit cash. There are a lot of bullish technical for tomorrow and the data for FOMC but I don’t trust it.
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Remember its not really the 25bps hike or not that is gonna matter tomorrow… what is going to matter is whether or not JPOW says there are going to be further rate hikes and if/ when he says there is a chance for a pause.
My thoughts are we rally into FOMC and then we will see 2pm spike on the 25bps news… and most likely hold flat/ sell off into 230. If JPOW tells us about how we are going to see more 25bps and that there is no pause in sight this is going to get very very bloody. Tomorrow is going to be an extremely volatile day.
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Taking a look at the rising wedge here on SPY you can see that we are holding the blue rising wedge and with that incredible EOD push we broke through 405.3 resistance and are now back over that resistance level.
Not only that we came down and held the daily 8ema support and bounced off of that today too.
The blue rising wedge gives room for a run to as high as 411.2 tomorrow to hold that resistance line. However, that resistance line could easily be broken if the algos hard pump us tomorrow.
Key SPY Support- 405.3 -> 402.8 -> 400.7
Key SPY Resistance- 410.3 -> 413.8
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Futures looks incredibly bullish today too. We had a very nice wick off the daily 200ema and presumably we will see the 20ema crossover the 200ema tomorrow too. With the 4040 support/ daily 8ema bounce we are closing right at key resistance of 4085. From here the next key level is 4095 that bulls need to take out. If they take out that there is a lot of upside potential.
4155 is that blue bull channel resistance.
KEY Futures support- 4085 -> 4075 -> 4055 -> 4040 -> 4030
Key Futures Resistance- 4095 -> 4130 -> 4185
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Tesla actually is looking fairly bearish. We did have a nice support bounce off 162.4 support this morning, however Tesla was not able to get back through 173.4 resistance today.
We have developed a blue bull channel and a black bull channel.
Blue bull support is 169 and resistance is 200. Black bull channel support is 151.4 and resistance is 189.6.
Two of the biggest levels to watch is 166.5 support and 185.2/ 197.2 resistance.
I still fully expect a retrace back to the 150s to fill the gap on tesla within the next week or two.
Key Tesla support- 166.4 -> 162.4 -> 159.7 -> 154.1
Key Tesla Resistance- 177.9 -> 185.3 -> 191.8
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Somewhat surprising here is that the VIX broke through that blue resistance line that dated back to October today but almost instantly after breaking through it retraced and closed under 19.7 yet again. With FOMC being tomorrow I would have suspected some rise in the VIX.
With this bearish engulfing VIX daily candle we should expect a bullish day tomorrow.
With FOMC tomorrow the day is going to be extremely volatile especially after 2pm. Everything relies on exactly what JPOW says tomorrow at 230pm.
Daily log-
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Overall swang those 24dte tesla puts and closed them nearly at the bottom this morning. I did end up re-entering those EOD today too.
I was still under the weather a little today so I didn’t trade much and frankly SPY seemed moments away from absolutely massive selloff all day.
Despite the crazy obvious bull trend none of it looked strong. There are 252 trading days in a year… we don’t have to trade every single day. And even if we do trade those days its okay to trade lightly some days.
Premiums were very expensive today cause of FOMC so I spent quite few hours in a call waiting for any sort of return on it too. I look forward to FOMC being over and no big news until CPI on the 14th.
VisualMod t1_j6oyksm wrote
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Hey /u/DaddyDersch, positions or ban. Reply to this with a screenshot of your entry/exit. >TL;DR: The day before FOMC generally speaking is a choppy range filled day. However today was probably one of the cleanest (yet slow/ small) straight bull trend days I have seen in a long time.