sanfrantokyotron t1_j6egvy3 wrote on January 29, 2023 at 7:53 PM

Although raising interest rates may result in more people/countries buying government debt vs other investment options, the higher interest rate also negatively impacts the US government by increasing the amount of interest they must pay on that debt. The US is starting to already encounter an issue with this, as a 5% interest rate requires about $1 trillion of interest payments on the US debt which is equivalent to 33% of annual tax revenue. If the government attempted to raise interest rates to trigger war, these interest costs would go up further which would reduce funds available for other government expenditures (like the military costs of war).

Additionally, raising interest rates would likely tank the US economy. If people choose to put their funds in T-bills vs other investments, businesses will have a harder time getting funding which will cause them to start laying off employees. As a result, a world war triggered by the Fed is unlikely as it would inflict significant damage not just on the world but also the US. This is sort of like the argument that China intentionally created COVID-19...why would any country take an action to hurt others that equally hurts themselves? There are many other ways to start a war that would have less collateral damage.

ThetaGangThroweway OP t1_j6esepi wrote on January 29, 2023 at 9:03 PM

Yes, but you vastly underestimate how much money can be raised through taxes. Interest rates can be raised to get funding NOW, while increased tax revenue takes months or years to catch up (sort of like Uncle Sam's credit card).

And no, high interest rates tank the stock market, but profitable employment will still exist. Companies that are profitable NOW will continue to be profitable and grow naturally, but companies that seek rapid growth better have some in-demand service to provide immediately.

SwissPrivateWanker t1_j6k7g5f wrote on January 30, 2023 at 10:27 PM

Average debt to equity for the S&P is 1.6 - raise rates to 10% or above and you are about to find out that you don't have many companies left that will be able to be "good". Unless you qualify as good any company that does not have any debt, but that makes no business sense given the tax incentives associated with debt in the current system. Look at PE shops that have bought out the US, their business is to overload companies with debt, and they are everywhere.

You did not answer u/sanfrantokyotron main premise: the US is under a shit load of debt - if its creditors see that they will be unable to repay their debt they will stop buying its bonds. New issues will start having to print at much higher rates, and that's what happens in EM markets... Taxes can arguably be raised - but when your country is going through a gigantic wave of bankrupcy due to insane rates, you will be bringing economic collapse to your civilisation. I doubt that's what the Fed is mandated to do...

So if I see the Fed raising rates so drastically, will I prefer to hold one of your "good" companies with low debt and a sound business model that will likely outlast a government that's hell bent on destroying its credibility? Probably, in other words, some public companies might be ok. Companies are global, and fetch capital abroad - you are also talking about the collapse of the USD in your instance. So a domestic producer exporting abroad would do particularly well in this scenario. As the USD collapse they could repay their debt in EUR or Rimnibi in a heartbeat.

I am afraid while interesting to read, your arguments do not hold. We do not live in a vacuum and killing your credibility by aiming to bankrupt your country is probably not the smartest move. The ECB, the Fed, the BoE etc... work together, that's why the system works - no bank can simply go rogue otherwise the repercussions on its economy could go horribly wrong, just look at that idiot in the UK in the fall as an example...

ThetaGangThroweway OP t1_j6k8y6v wrote on January 30, 2023 at 10:37 PM

Come on. Americans complain about government debt no matter what it is. Out here in Kansas we complain about Topeka's use of money markets, which are overnight loans for when taxes and payroll don't match up. The Federal debt is the rough equivalent to a mortgage.

But more importantly, rising interest rates effect future debts and not current ones. If a company has a fixed rate mortgage for 7%, they will keep paying that no matter what the Fed does (although refinancing will be impossible).

And why the frick would people dump the dollar? It's such a cliche to predict its collapse that you said it with no logical connection to the topic at hand. The US government does all business in US dollars, meaning the more the government takes over the more the more people HAVE to use dollars.

SwissPrivateWanker t1_j6kdbqa wrote on January 30, 2023 at 11:06 PM

Because it won't just happen over time what you are suggesting. You are suggesting a brisk and fast rate movement in the FFR to 10%+ with the additional insane spending idea of getting companies to produce as much goods as possible for the government to buy for the war effort. If am a US creditor, I say fuck this - I'll go and get something safer and park my cash in a government that will remain solvant for longer. The US government can do all the business it wants in dollars, it's also the largest importer of goods in the world, so they better have a currency people accept before going rogue.

So yes, the largest creditors would dump US bonds, and thus the dollar will go down with it. If you intend on spending, you won't be able to raise new debt for this spending. The old debt won't be your problem, the US government NEEDS new debt to operate, plain and simple. This is what happens in the EM world, and the US is not protected from this either. Sure thing 60% or more of global trades are done in USD, but as with Russia, we see how countries can adapt VERY fast at the new reality of being cut out from the USD.

Again, "it's such a cliche to predict its collapse" - your scenario IS bringing its collapse, so I am not even arguing today about the collapse of the US, because the US is not in your hypothetical situation thank goodness.

ThetaGangThroweway OP t1_j6lrxhh wrote on January 31, 2023 at 5:42 AM

You underestimate the Fed's power, and the brutality of men. Not only will there being NOTHING else to invest in, but given the circumstances you could face legal or extralegal consequences for not participating in the war effort. In fact, it is unlikely you will be investing at all, but buying gear in order to participate. I don't know who you are, but it doesn't matter, you're going to get involved.