CokeAndChill t1_j6ml5kz wrote on January 31, 2023 at 12:02 PM

The sp500 it’s outright expensive with current earnings at 18x or so.

You have QT, rising rates, earnings going down and the fed telling you expensive assets are a part of the problem.

The only thing holding this market together is the pandemic liquidity injected in the form of credit, JPows bulging balance sheet and all the hopium in the air.

Turbiedurb t1_j6n8rwo wrote on January 31, 2023 at 3:16 PM

>The only thing holding this market together is the pandemic liquidity injected in the form of credit,

Lol wtf? 😆

Fund managers cash levels are at the highest levels since -09. The money is there but it sure as hell isn't propping up the markets like you're describing.

Here's some food for thought.

https://bakadesuyo.com/2010/09/do-we-perceive-negative-people-as-smarter-and/

CokeAndChill t1_j6ng23a wrote on January 31, 2023 at 4:03 PM

Liquidity in the form of credit is buying a car at 1% apy, nothing to do with fund managers.

I’m not a permabear but having some perspective never hurts. Look at the cyclically adjusted pe and consider the risk free rate!

Turbiedurb t1_j6ni0mo wrote on January 31, 2023 at 4:15 PM

>Liquidity in the form of credit is buying a car at 1% apy, nothing to do with fund managers.

And i never said it did.

Interest rates on car loans doesn't really crash the market tho. Sure the demand drops in the short term but people will still need to drive.

It's always wise to use several pieces of data to form an analysis.

I'm just saying that the historical difference in the data im pointing to is far greater then the one you're pointing to.

It's just a regular market cycle, but the cash on hand money managers hold is something different imo.

Bonds yields are still at relatively low levela, especially seeing as the market recently made new 52week lows.

Remember TINA?