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Dorktastical t1_j6j0lm4 wrote

Reply to comment by StritPlunGrateNud in 50 Basis Point Hike - This Wednesday - Write it down by MogamboKushhua468

What about their first 75bp hike? bond markets expected 50 until suddenly a few days before a new york post monkey that's known for getting inside info from the fed talked about 75bp and got that rapidly baked in over 3 days involvimg massive gaps down on the indexes. No way that counts as having been expected.

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StritPlunGrateNud t1_j6j8z1u wrote

You left out the disastrous CPI report that came out the week before the Fed meeting which turned the prospects of a 75bps hike into a real possibility, and sparked the change in expectations and the gap downs in the equity markets.

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pegunless t1_j6k1pms wrote

This time the same reporter has been signaling 25

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Dorktastical t1_j6k9s38 wrote

Nick Timiraos's twitter is where this information comes out, I don't disagree that it is likely to be 25bp but I see a lot of signs that we should be expecting 50bp. He's tweeting about Brainard's recent speeches and about how inflation hasn't proven itself to have stabilized.

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pegunless t1_j6kg545 wrote

Previously he outright stated 25, I'm taking those statements as justification for continuing on that path. At this point if they were considering 50 I think you'd see him state "50 is a real possibility". The Fed really dislikes surprising the markets.

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Ak47killer122 t1_j6jpbs0 wrote

It counts considering that the fed mentioned hiking by 75bps because of the recent cpi report

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