A theory of how PIF wanted to play LCID acquisition - but was sabotaged

Submitted by No_Low_2541 t3_10o0zik in wallstreetbets

First, let’s establish a few things:

  1. Lucid, although losing money, possesses impressive technology and a lot of potential
  2. PIF would love to own that potential

So let’s assume the buyout rumor was true - at least they wish to do that. Then let’s look back - what happened?

  1. Lucid was given a $5 price target by Morgan Stanley.
  2. Then we know that JP Morgan might be helping PIF to buy out Lucid

So one possibility is that PIF has been working with the big banks to

  1. Artificially suppress the price of Lucid, with fear, with low price targets and possibly with shorting
  2. PIF can swoop in and make an offer of, let’s say, $13 and still look pretty generous.

But someone was not happy with this scheme and decided to expose this. And voila - people piled in and LCID shot up, making the acquisition more difficult.

Just a theory. I know nothing that you don’t know.

Also: my plan is to buy 200 shares at open on Monday. I don’t think PIF will pay anything less than $12.5 so in my book the risk is pretty minimal at this point (current price 12.29).

What do you think?

23

Comments

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VisualMod t1_j6c0ptn wrote

>This is an interesting theory, but I'm not sure if it's entirely accurate. JP Morgan could be working with PIF to buy out Lucid, but they could also be helping Lucid raise capital so that the company can continue operating. It's difficult to say for sure without more information.

As for your plan to buy 200 shares at the open on Monday, I think that is a smart move. The downside risk seems minimal at this point, and there is potential for a decent return if the acquisition does go through.

11

twinkletwinkle89 t1_j6c2j0n wrote

If PIF already owns +60% of LCID, why would they want to keep the stock price lower? Wouldn’t it be in their best interest to keep the price around their cost basis which is north of $10 dollars.

11

MyNi_NotYourNi t1_j6c2zge wrote

Your perfectly logical question will very likely bounce right off of the shiny tinfoil surface.

13

soldiernerd t1_j6g3awn wrote

It’s a fine question but the answer is that PIF doesn’t care about the value of their existing stake as much as they care about the cost of acquiring the rest of the company

2

rappeasant t1_j6d3tbn wrote

No, it doesn’t matter what the trading price is if they want to buy it out completely. Therefore, it’s better for them to have the price fall as low as possible so they can buy the remaining shares for as cheap as possible

6

StuartMcNight t1_j6c9x40 wrote

Counter question…. If their plan is to take the company private by acquiring all shares… why would they want to keep the price higher?

5

No_Low_2541 OP t1_j6c3g4l wrote

I don’t think they can do that without having a vote.. and in that vote, only the non-PIF shareholders get to vote. Otherwise the majority owner get to do whatever they want - even buying out all the remaining shares for $0.0001.

3

Chenz-Theking-3156 t1_j6dz1nv wrote

If they keep it lower, they can swoop in and buy the remaining at a discount.

2

Mesta1968 t1_j6cv90v wrote

I couldn’t speak to the theory (who can right) but I do agree is we need some Lucid Apes 🦍 to step up!! If we are going to lose this investment

Peters words to Phil Lebeau when asked about dilution and how his investors were nervous was “this is a long term investment ….vertical integration” If that is all Horse Shit which it is (let’s face it Peter is NO CEO) He’s a brilliant engineer and a puppet for the Saudis. I’ve been saying that since day one and have also said Liveris is pulling the strings. He has relationships with Saudi

8

leebrother t1_j6d0n1r wrote

I’m with you here. The play for a squeeze is huge.

7

BlueOmlette t1_j6dzzmy wrote

Totally with you on PR being in over his head. If he can get out of the way Lucid might stand a chance.

1

Eduardoyanez93 t1_j6c3rl4 wrote

Maybe. So lets keep buying so they pay us more for our shares!

7

SuperPooks t1_j6cadkz wrote

I think the pricing would be $19 to $23 for it to be “approvals” but we’ll see:)

7

workinguntil65oridie t1_j6d8xls wrote

60% is already control. There is no need to take anything private if the path to profitability in the auto industry is so far off.

Their investment fund is for greenfield, but buying outright the entire company does not make sense. Those funds would have a greater return elsewhere

6

superlip2003 t1_j6dqply wrote

Smart thing to do now (if you already own LCID) is actually to buy puts.

4

SWCT-sinistera t1_j6fy1uu wrote

Can you briefly explain why?

2

superlip2003 t1_j6iouy2 wrote

Simply put if it goes up, because of your holdings you'll happy. If it goes down in short term, your small amount of puts will print so you'll be happy. A simple diversification tactic.

Especially when it's rumor driven sharp boom which is doomed to fall soon.

3

MyNi_NotYourNi t1_j6c1t04 wrote

An unhealthy fascination with the tail will lead you to all manners of theories for why the dog did what it did that doesn't have much to do with reality.

May also want to track the "Uncooked" source of this rumor.

2

VisualMod t1_j6c0pej wrote

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^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive >TL;DR: PIF is artificially suppressing the price of Lucid in order to make a more favorable offer for acquisition.

1

ritelitewp t1_j6dzq7j wrote

Expect Lucid to go down at least 8 to 10% on Monday with profit takers/day Traders

1

Dan_inKuwait t1_j6cmy49 wrote

Wild the number of lucid trolls that have popped out of nowhere this last week....

1

abraxsis t1_j6ev1d6 wrote

And all the "apes" and "Squeeze" bullshit as well. Im soooooo fucking tired of this.

4

cillicocuk t1_j6d9e7n wrote

Isnt panasonic their battery supplier. Then it is panasonics battery technology.

1

No_Low_2541 OP t1_j6d9l5r wrote

Simply because they want to specialize in other things to be more efficient.

4

Dadmomangrypants88 t1_j6dcyry wrote

I think it’s actually Samsung who provides the cells themselves, but Lucid designs the configurations, power distribution channels, motor design, and battery pack assembly.

1

_LuciDreamS_ t1_j6elquz wrote

I'd love to see this stock continue to rise but I feel like it'll just go back to $6

1

Kinodog t1_j6gv7ts wrote

It is going to revert back to $6’s in a recession with more rate hikes and a year without loosening so be prepared to lose money even with tight stops

1

dyalikescratchin t1_j6gy71d wrote

PIF buys up everyone’s stock, and away goes the upside potential for the stock that current employees already own. Thus removing incentive for them to give it their all.

1

No_Low_2541 OP t1_j6gyws2 wrote

Yes exactly. And that’s bad for the company.

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cillicocuk t1_j6cm34h wrote

Lucid does not have any impressive technology. Take lucid air. Longest range but a lot of dead weights of battery and added weight of stronger chasis. This is how middle schoolers plans things not engineers.

−15

Dadmomangrypants88 t1_j6d6glv wrote

They own Formula E battery production. Their battery tech and performance is easily the most impressive. Motorsport is usually the first indicator of advances in production cars, so if you’re paying attention they actually do have impressive battery tech

7

cillicocuk t1_j6d76dt wrote

No, it is about how much money you paid to Fia.

0

Dadmomangrypants88 t1_j6d8ix8 wrote

Disagree. It’s a testing ground for tech and future performance. So many stories of Porsche, Honda, Ford, Audi, Mercedes using it to test hybrid engines, fuel efficiency techniques, p/w ratios, engine endurance, etc. it’s basically a way for sponsors to pay for R&D. Honda is the best example testing their hybrid engines before production. Just watch, they are testing battery performance at the highest level and it will pay dividends in the long term

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Dadmomangrypants88 t1_j6d94nt wrote

In addition car owners and drivers want to win. Do you really think they wouldn’t use better battery tech if it was available and still in specifications?

1

No_Low_2541 OP t1_j6d9fh0 wrote

Their motor is the best in the industry in many aspects, their wunder box technology is also impressive. And the design is simply 🔥

2