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VisualMod t1_j6kocz5 wrote

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elpresidentedeltoro OP t1_j6koiis wrote

**Retail Mood - 690 Retail investors surveyed weekly for last 48 weeks. Looks pretty too

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elpresidentedeltoro OP t1_j6konfs wrote

Should this be posted as Chart or DD? Too many rules to keep it all straight.

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vacityrocker t1_j6kqq8e wrote

This is a perfect research tool in the paradigm of what NOT to do.... which is in this case follow retail investors

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anonymousperson767 t1_j6kqvdr wrote

If I overlay this against SPY...how much is it going to correlate? Weekly changes in sentiment tell me this is probably a rear-looking indicator and not a forward looking on.

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elpresidentedeltoro OP t1_j6kvx93 wrote

Replying to anonymousperson767 (#1,636,253)

>Retail Mood is a tool that helps traders understand investor sentiment by surveying retail investors. It provides a snapshot of the collective mood and attitude of these investors towards a particular market or security, allowing traders to gauge their sentiment.

Fair point - It's not exactly a leading indicator, but we also can't label it as solely lagging.

The most leading indicator is the market, right. And so, here is that indicator sliced in a way you probably haven't seen before. Orange line is volatility skew by expiration, blue line is price. Let me know if you need some TLDR and DD on volatility skew - Didn't want to overload you with info.

I have it for the VIX too. But in short, no pun intended. All my data is pointing sideways at the moment.

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https://preview.redd.it/j38101tsmbfa1.png?width=1383&format=png&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=9ac914c5cb6f5b630db90ffe2f2abcb3bc2d0d8f

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elpresidentedeltoro OP t1_j6kx3qe wrote

Replying to vacityrocker (#1,636,215)

Sure, dumb money vs smart money. And there are exceptions to the rule. Smart money can bank roll trades in a way the rest of us can’t, so I also don’t think we should over glorify them.

Even with all of their tools and analysts they don’t always turn a profit.

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