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Robincapitalists t1_j6nx6i4 wrote

Market Probability Tracker - Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta (atlantafed.org)

If there was a 50/50 split, or something close to that between 50 and 25 basis points, I'd say yes. But it's 25. I thought it would be 50 a while back, but never materialized in data.

What he will do is highlight the end rate, dot plot. Which is still above 5%. Which would take 2 more hikes to get to. He will try to talk markets down without hitting a 50 basis point hammer.

It's going to take months for the market to realize that higher rates are here to stay and that there is no rate cut coming this year.

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jbacon47 t1_j6nygy0 wrote

25 isn’t going to change a thing. So the next meeting will be 25 and the next… Just get it over with. 50 points.

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Invest0rnoob1 t1_j6o4gy6 wrote

They can’t keep raising rates otherwise the debt obligation would get too high.

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jbacon47 t1_j6o4mbl wrote

So I’ve heard. Better start raising some taxes

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Dozekar t1_j6pa8ap wrote

The point is that debt obligation getting too high is the only thing that actually stops inflation.

That's literally the point. That is what they're targeting.

You're still interpreting soft landing as for you and not soft landing for the fed.

You stop money circulating by making your current obligations high enough to pull that money from the market and if your business doesn't adjust it gets wrecked.

No wrecked businesses = it hasn't happened yet. Turning free money fountain back on = inflation is back.

The rates aren't going back down any time soon, or the inflation is coming back.

The lack of bad things happening is how much free money is still in rotation. This is 100% to be expected with 13 years of pumping money into the economy like this.

img will continue until img becomes img

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wealth4good t1_j6phuxl wrote

50 ain't gonna cut it in my opinion. JPow needs to have some guts & do a 100 Basis Pt. raise or a full point to make a dent in inflation. My scare the markets, but the way the FED's going with the raises, it'll be until 2024 or 2025 before inflation is back near their target of 2%.

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hkric t1_j6nvuou wrote

MOCK

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wealth4good t1_j6ovbio wrote

Who's dumb and who's dumber?

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Fuhnancial t1_j6oy8cl wrote

Both making the most annoying sound imgimgimg

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Invest0rnoob1 t1_j6o4c5x wrote

Wages came down more than expected so most likely .25

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