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Outis7379 t1_j6nnnta wrote

Dude, if Jpow hikes 50, the market will shit its pants for 5 minutes and then decide “it was 50 bps therefore pivot next” and moon.

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ambermage t1_j6oytfg wrote

50 was expected, so carry on after 2 red days as penance.

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robot_handjob t1_j6pb5ak wrote

So many people calling for 25 saying it’s the last hike while JPOW has done exactly what he’s said he will do the entire time and 25 doesn’t put us at the terminal rate they already decided on.

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kyliecannoli t1_j6oj85p wrote

The more wallstreetbets wants the market to tank tomorrow the more I feel like it’s gonna skyrocket

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AwesomeRevolution98 t1_j6paip1 wrote

Correct. Though in the end market might jump pump 1% after a 25bps, and then probably the bear trend could continue anyways

3

Hotresearch-68 t1_j6mxdko wrote

Beggars are so attractive.

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Serafiel0705 t1_j6n0xyh wrote

Beam should shine from his ass

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ComposedStudent t1_j6oxkay wrote

It be funny if 75 bps comes out of nowhere. Investors aren't respecting the Federal Reserve

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FracturedSoula t1_j6nizxa wrote

Are people here really betting on him going 50 instead of 25? Truly regarded.

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ambermage t1_j6oz7rg wrote

He should do 100 and then yell "Fucked around and found out!"

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Business_System3319 t1_j6o6ym4 wrote

No, it’s already overbought on a pivot and rate cuts but there’s a 95 percent chance it’s two 25s then halt and wait for a market response. 4.9999999 percent 50 and .00000001% 75

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Robincapitalists t1_j6odjlb wrote

I don't know why the market is stuck on 2 25 hikes. That would leave them at 4.75-5%. Under their dot plot, under what they project the end rate to be (which is 5.1, so they'd go 5-5.25)?

4

Hopkinskid2022 t1_j6oha2k wrote

Their dot plot is projection and can change. If they project 5.1, and they leave it at 5%, nothing new or game changing. Plus if you look at past fed minutes from past years, there’s always doves and there’s always hawks…and depending on the environment, one has influence over the other…last year the hawks won…this year, the doves may

Plus look at the bond market and treasury yields to figure out where that market thinks fed funds rates will be.

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Robincapitalists t1_j6oqmop wrote

Over the last 6 months their end rate has moved up, as has the time they anticipate holding it that high. So yes, it can change, and did change to higher and longer.

The markets, equities and bonds are stuck in 2020, 2021 thinking. My opinion.

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Hopkinskid2022 t1_j6p44r7 wrote

I think the markets are waiting for that pivot where their end rate remains static (versus the end rate going up every fed meeting since last summer, as you mentioned). I think that’s the catalyst the markets are looking for (not 25 vs 50 bps, but more the messaging).

2

Robincapitalists t1_j6pa5xu wrote

If the markets rally, the Fed will just keep raising and or hold the rate at 5% for a long time until the markets get the message. The Fed is not happy the market is trying to lead on a pivot.

I think we are in a different era. 2010s low-rate Fed assistance. I believe that is over for a long time.

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Business_System3319 t1_j6odvf6 wrote

That’s a fair point which is probs why a 50 then a 25 would make the most logical sense so they don’t have to keep doing 25 rates until it goes down.

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daynapper t1_j6nqxat wrote

Get real, it’s either 25 or zero fam

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impulsikk t1_j6o99x9 wrote

As someone with a job in real estate... please no.

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DA2710 t1_j6odvn4 wrote

As another person with a life in real estate please YES!!!

3

OmNamahShivaya t1_j6nth4o wrote

Just crank it up to 10,000 bps so we can somehow all get rich off puts. Think about it, guys!

6

whowasphones t1_j6o2w4o wrote

Buy a put then 👀 lemme see you put your money where your mouth is

4

Siessfires t1_j6o841b wrote

I, too, liked The Lighthouse

3

Professional_Low1199 t1_j6ogp4e wrote

JPow is a little biooootch and is too scared to be a real man and do a 1.75 BPS rate hike.

3

Ohmaygahh t1_j6nqprw wrote

Is that pyramid head's great grandfather?

2

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1

PipelineBertaCoin69 t1_j6oq9r6 wrote

Canada did 25bps, the fed told them to do that, the fed will do 25bps

1

Fuman20000 t1_j6pil9n wrote

Let’s fucking hope so because the market alone has gone up more than 6% in a month.

0