Submitted by OliveInvestor t3_10p6slc in wallstreetbets

With Amazon's fourth-quarter 2022 results, set to be reported on February 2nd, expectations are high for the company's financial performance. The company is forecasting net sales between $140 billion and $148 billion, with growth expected to be between 2-8% from the previous year's quarter. Analysts at Zacks Consensus Estimate predict net sales of $145.37 billion, a 5.8% increase from the prior year, and earnings per share of 15 cents, a decline of 89.2% from the previous year.

The good

Despite this decline in earnings per share, Amazon's holiday performance was a standout, boosted by strong initiatives and record-breaking sales from its selling partners. The company's expanding distribution network, Prime-enabled fast delivery services, and robust grocery offerings all contributed to the quarter's success.

Prime Free One Day service, Amazon Fresh, and the strong two-hour delivery service from Whole Foods Market drove customer momentum in the quarter, while the expanding Same-Day Delivery service for Prime members only added to the positive results. Amazon's growing global e-commerce business, expanding Prime footprint, and aggressive stance on physical presence all helped contribute to the quarter's performance.

Streaming services such as Prime Video and Amazon Music also saw solid momentum, with expanding original content and overall content portfolios driving Prime engagement. The expanding Amazon Web Services portfolio, robust Fire products family, Echo smart speakers, Blink doorbells, and Eero products all contributed to the quarter's results, along with strengthened Alexa features.

The bad

Growing inflationary pressures and a slowdown in online shopping could pose risks to Amazon's fourth-quarter performance.

Tech stocks which are leading the market rally in 2023 with Nasdaq on pace to record its best January since 1999 may face some downward pressure in the week ahead as the Fed meets and Apple posts earnings.

Implied move for AMZN is +/-7.3% but historically the expectations have been higher than the past average.

Trade idea

A bull put spread will capture some of the upside potential but also protect against a dip if the price moves in the wrong direction. This one for example makes 5% yield (22% annualized yield) unless AMZN falls below $85 at maturity (-15% move from current price).

max profit

Buy 1 $75p, Buy 1 $80p, Sell 3 $85p, all expiring 4/21/23

Note--this is a BULLISH strategy, steer clear if you're bearish and would not want to be long shares. Worst case scenario the price dips below breakeven and you are exposed to assignment risk.

capital required to cash secure: $9,571.30



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UserOfTheReddits t1_j6imbcj wrote

last time I took random advice from this subreddit I lost my life savings (few days ago a mf said to buy puts on tesla… shit went up 10% 2 days in a row)


BiggToastie t1_j6isq5a wrote

Maybe don't gamble your life saving because of anonymous Internet strangers.


UserOfTheReddits t1_j6isxh2 wrote

who said anything about gambling?!


BiggToastie t1_j6it4tt wrote

Buying shares is literally gambling o.O


UserOfTheReddits t1_j6iu8im wrote

well guess what. I didnt buy shares… I bought contractual documents that would give me a right to buy shares that I didnt buy 😎


OliveInvestor OP t1_j6ivtkd wrote

Sorry for your loss? This is a defined outcome strategy though -- if the capital requirement here is your life savings then I wouldn't recommend. Personally I try not to have any single position be more than 10% of my portfolio, especially if it's a riskier trade


YoungTrader05 t1_j6l7oke wrote

I mean, then there wouldn’t be a point to be on Reddit… 🤣


evilartnboy t1_j6it0ld wrote

Last time I took advice from this subreddit I made 12 dollars (a 100% roi)


UserOfTheReddits t1_j6iup0t wrote

Im fairly certain achieving a 100% roi is mathematically impossible according to orange blossom theorem


evilartnboy t1_j6lg9od wrote

I don't know what that is so it dosent apply to me. All I know is that I doubled my money


[deleted] t1_j6j60r7 wrote



graciesoldman t1_j6jitez wrote

I lost money in Vegas years ago on dog races. Got so hammered, I was betting on races then watching the wrong monitor and race. I lost about $40...I recommend you try dog races. You won't lose as much and you'll have a great time yelling at the monitor...


Unknownirish t1_j6l5epp wrote

But think of the karma points from lose porn pictures!?


Suikoden1P t1_j6j6v24 wrote

Love the dislike for Amazon. You all realize AWS makes up 56% of cloud services right? Of course you didn't. Buy your puts and post your loss porn later on in the year when crypto goes up.


TheDr0p t1_j6jpeqn wrote

This is a bullish strategy genius.


Suikoden1P t1_j6khbxz wrote

Did I say anything about the OP genius? I'm talking about some of the comments in the thread, genius.


STONKvsTITS t1_j6imysx wrote

Could go up or could go way down.

I would steer clear of any tech stocks this week as things can get nasty and ugly ( like me) after the Fed’s meeting. But if you know what you are doing then all the best 👍🏻


MAC3113 t1_j6ivw20 wrote

How is Amazon still trading at 80 p/e whereas rest of big-tech is trading at 20 p/e?


OliveInvestor OP t1_j6ixpo8 wrote

I see it at 92 on Ycharts. Things that make you go 🤔


Asleep_Campaign6726 t1_j6m3rek wrote

If amazon stopped investing in building its moat its p/e would be more than cut in half.


boogi3woogie t1_j6jplbo wrote

I don’t recall AWS doing super well last quarter

Amazon’s retail operates at a loss

I don’t have high expectations


Ok_Edge_1486 t1_j6iknrh wrote

Poster is mega ragarded. If $AAPL and $MSFT struggle this bad with earnings, a company as volatile and suspectable to rate hikes like $AMZN will go red. OP will be holdin trash bags soonimgimgimg


MammothLover21 t1_j6jd8h8 wrote

Thanks for sharing. I’ll follow your trade idea by doing the inverse.


JeffOutdoors t1_j6jkeiu wrote

Thanks for the well written post and research. Very up in the air with Amazon at the moment, only have a small call position, $155c 7/21 exp which is extremely ambitious. Will update but not looking to good at the moment imo


VisualMod t1_j6ik50v wrote

User Report
Total Submissions 8 First Seen In WSB 1 year ago
Total Comments 364 Previous Best DD x x x x x x x
Account Age 1 year [^scan ^comment ]( [^scan ^submission ](

^^Discord ^^BanBets ^^VoteBot ^^FAQ ^^Leaderboard ^^- ^^Keep_VM_Alive >TL;DR: Amazon is forecast to report strong fourth-quarter results on February 2nd, driven by growth in its e-commerce business, expanding Prime footprint, and aggressive stance on physical presence. However, inflationary pressures and a slowdown in online shopping could pose risks to the company's performance.


peepeedog t1_j6mcsmk wrote

What is this, a trade for ants?


OliveInvestor OP t1_j6nwmtl wrote

How can we be expected to teach degenerates to gamble... if they can't even lose their entire life savings??