burtgenx t1_j5ge8u1 wrote on January 22, 2023 at 8:47 PM

Up this week, fed 25bps priced in and earnings though weaker meet expectation. Calls loaded. $MSFT

Rameist2 t1_j5gfy7k wrote on January 22, 2023 at 8:57 PM

(Nods in MSFT calls)

heyitsflaco t1_j5gmfhj wrote on January 22, 2023 at 9:38 PM

I don’t think 25bps is priced in lol

ThaViking t1_j5gn1ys wrote on January 22, 2023 at 9:42 PM

What do you think is priced in?

heyitsflaco t1_j5gpa1d wrote on January 22, 2023 at 9:56 PM

I think the market is pricing in a pivot even though the Feds stated they won’t this year. The Feds also stated a 50bps for the last rate hike and the market didn’t price it in and took a dump. I believe this is the same situation. Too much bullish sentiment when so far nothing should be bullish.

ThaViking t1_j5gpg5h wrote on January 22, 2023 at 9:57 PM

Gotcha. Seems sensible.

heyitsflaco t1_j5gpetc wrote on January 22, 2023 at 9:57 PM

Just my thinking. Can absolutely be wrong and it rallies. I’m honestly good either way

ThaViking t1_j5gpmq8 wrote on January 22, 2023 at 9:59 PM

No, I don’t disagree. Nice getting different POVs.

MinimumCat123 t1_j5gup6g wrote on January 22, 2023 at 10:31 PM

No rate hike/rate cut has been getting priced in. 25 bps may cause a selloff.

https://i.imgur.com/t119rEL.jpg