Viewing a single comment thread. View all comments

Dothemath2 t1_j6nrxcw wrote

Why though? Yields to go up because they are betting inflation is not under control? Doesn’t seem to make sense? Are they thinking massive outflows from treasuries to stocks or maybe US government debt issues or possible default or near default? I think the US will turn itself inside out before they default.

3

[deleted] t1_j6o7u2y wrote

If inflation is not under control the fed will continue to hike rates which drops bonds prices and raises yields

13

Dothemath2 t1_j6oizy1 wrote

Isn’t inflation under control? Month over month, it’s at 2%. Having said that I am neck deep in puts because I think earnings will go down.

−8

RowPuzzleheaded3590 t1_j6or7oi wrote

Yes. And there’s several models that suggest recession is either happening or imminent.

But the fed is still hiking to cause unemployment so they can rug pull the economy and the rich can buy everything up, then drop rates for the wealthy to refinance the debt cheaper. And so US gov doesn’t have high treasury interest rates

5

Dothemath2 t1_j6pdtj6 wrote

I get it now! Bond market at these levels pricing in a Fed pivot, 2nd half 2023, not higher rates through 2024. Essentially if no pivot then yield rates go up, bond prices go down.

2