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scarneo t1_j68yv57 wrote

Priced in, this is a known factor for sure

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Trash_Panda-1 t1_j690szu wrote

If you look at their price, I'd say it's fairly obvious that it has not been priced in... But hey... I'll tell you what, if you feel confident it's priced in buy one share of Abbvie and hold it until February 14th. If you're right you can sell it and nothing will happen.

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iamfar_ t1_j69tp21 wrote

Analysts are pricing in a 7% drop in revenue next year. Napkin math suggests that number makes sense 25% drop in sales of humira offset by gains elsewhere (Skyrizi and Rinvoq).

People have been talking about the patent cliff for 5+ years now. The news is ancient

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Trash_Panda-1 t1_j6931xz wrote

https://preview.redd.it/03rw99qzwuea1.png?width=557&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=392c379b92150accf7352b0872b68ca0028e68a4

Abbvie has had the Humira patent since 2002 I believe, (remember 43% of sales last year) does this chart really show an adequate correction for losing a monopoly on 43% of sales?

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Taiyonay t1_j69sk23 wrote

They don't lose their patent for certain indications and this was known for years that it was coming as they have been in and out of court for a while trying to defend the patent. Only one biosimilar hits the market now. More can be released in July. Probably won't see any major change until start of quarter 3

Edit to also add that they have had recent success with expanded indication approvals for skyrizi and rinvoq to replace humira in the market share and they are actually doing really well with prescribers. Abbvie has some top notch drug reps and a really great bridge to coverage programs that have expanded access to these other drugs drastically.

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Adventurous-String38 t1_j690l4s wrote

Stock prices drop on bad NEWS.

The end of Humira patents in early 2023 is not news at all.

It's been well known and discussed for years, so the effects have been baked into analysts' earnings expectations for years.

The company has a good product line-up and pipeline as their management has been forewarned that Humira won't go on forever.

On the contrary, I read that AbbVie might actually cling on to part of their Humira business with longer running patents indirectly connected with the drug.

Disclaimer: I bought the stock after it was beaten down on announcing the Allergan takeover, so I'm long ABBV. It's done very well since then - and if I'd been worried about the long known impending fizzling of Humira profits, I would have sold.

Edit: typo

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VisualMod t1_j68uiql wrote

>It is no surprise that Abbvie would try to game the system in order to make as much money as possible off of their most lucrative drug. However, now that generics are entering the market, prices for Humira are expected to drop significantly, which will likely hurt Abbvie's bottom line in the coming years.

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Hot_Lingonberry5817 t1_j6coz34 wrote

A platitude is a trite, meaningless, or prosaic statement, often used as a thought-terminating cliché, aimed at quelling social, emotional, or cognitive unease.[1] The statement may be true, but its meaning has been lost due to its excessive use.[2]

Platitudes have been criticized as giving a false impression of wisdom, making it easy to accept falsehoods.

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shadowfx23 t1_j68x1vb wrote

It's been sliding for a couple of weeks now but I do believe there's still meat on the bones for puts. Two things will drop it further:

  1. Gloomy forecast because they're losing Humira
  2. High debt (see their debt to equity ratio) which I assume will get worse from losing exclusivity on Humira
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Negative-Road-8610 t1_j68w1jr wrote

Do you have a nonpay wall link to the article

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VisualMod t1_j68ui0s wrote

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