Trash_Panda-1 t1_j690szu wrote on January 28, 2023 at 4:47 PM

Reply to comment by scarneo in Abbvie to lose most lucrative patent protection one week before Q4 earnings call. by [deleted]

If you look at their price, I'd say it's fairly obvious that it has not been priced in... But hey... I'll tell you what, if you feel confident it's priced in buy one share of Abbvie and hold it until February 14th. If you're right you can sell it and nothing will happen.

iamfar_ t1_j69tp21 wrote on January 28, 2023 at 8:03 PM

Analysts are pricing in a 7% drop in revenue next year. Napkin math suggests that number makes sense 25% drop in sales of humira offset by gains elsewhere (Skyrizi and Rinvoq).

People have been talking about the patent cliff for 5+ years now. The news is ancient

Trash_Panda-1 t1_j6931xz wrote on January 28, 2023 at 5:02 PM

https://preview.redd.it/03rw99qzwuea1.png?width=557&format=pjpg&auto=webp&v=enabled&s=392c379b92150accf7352b0872b68ca0028e68a4

Abbvie has had the Humira patent since 2002 I believe, (remember 43% of sales last year) does this chart really show an adequate correction for losing a monopoly on 43% of sales?

Taiyonay t1_j69sk23 wrote on January 28, 2023 at 7:55 PM

They don't lose their patent for certain indications and this was known for years that it was coming as they have been in and out of court for a while trying to defend the patent. Only one biosimilar hits the market now. More can be released in July. Probably won't see any major change until start of quarter 3

Edit to also add that they have had recent success with expanded indication approvals for skyrizi and rinvoq to replace humira in the market share and they are actually doing really well with prescribers. Abbvie has some top notch drug reps and a really great bridge to coverage programs that have expanded access to these other drugs drastically.