Submitted by [deleted] t3_10nig7x in wallstreetbets
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Submitted by [deleted] t3_10nig7x in wallstreetbets
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>It is no surprise that Abbvie would try to game the system in order to make as much money as possible off of their most lucrative drug. However, now that generics are entering the market, prices for Humira are expected to drop significantly, which will likely hurt Abbvie's bottom line in the coming years.
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Do you have a nonpay wall link to the article
I need a 10-bagger, is this the one?
I'll see what I can find
Here is a non-paywall article. It also mentions that Humira accounted for 43% of Abbvie's sales last year.
It's been sliding for a couple of weeks now but I do believe there's still meat on the bones for puts. Two things will drop it further:
Priced in, this is a known factor for sure
Stock prices drop on bad NEWS.
The end of Humira patents in early 2023 is not news at all.
It's been well known and discussed for years, so the effects have been baked into analysts' earnings expectations for years.
The company has a good product line-up and pipeline as their management has been forewarned that Humira won't go on forever.
On the contrary, I read that AbbVie might actually cling on to part of their Humira business with longer running patents indirectly connected with the drug.
Disclaimer: I bought the stock after it was beaten down on announcing the Allergan takeover, so I'm long ABBV. It's done very well since then - and if I'd been worried about the long known impending fizzling of Humira profits, I would have sold.
Edit: typo
If you look at their price, I'd say it's fairly obvious that it has not been priced in... But hey... I'll tell you what, if you feel confident it's priced in buy one share of Abbvie and hold it until February 14th. If you're right you can sell it and nothing will happen.
They also drop on materialized revenue crush, which has not yet happened.
They do when the "crush" is a fall worse than expected.
Abbvie has had the Humira patent since 2002 I believe, (remember 43% of sales last year) does this chart really show an adequate correction for losing a monopoly on 43% of sales?
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They don't lose their patent for certain indications and this was known for years that it was coming as they have been in and out of court for a while trying to defend the patent. Only one biosimilar hits the market now. More can be released in July. Probably won't see any major change until start of quarter 3
Edit to also add that they have had recent success with expanded indication approvals for skyrizi and rinvoq to replace humira in the market share and they are actually doing really well with prescribers. Abbvie has some top notch drug reps and a really great bridge to coverage programs that have expanded access to these other drugs drastically.
Analysts are pricing in a 7% drop in revenue next year. Napkin math suggests that number makes sense 25% drop in sales of humira offset by gains elsewhere (Skyrizi and Rinvoq).
People have been talking about the patent cliff for 5+ years now. The news is ancient
There's a way to find out, you know? 🤪
A platitude is a trite, meaningless, or prosaic statement, often used as a thought-terminating cliché, aimed at quelling social, emotional, or cognitive unease.[1] The statement may be true, but its meaning has been lost due to its excessive use.[2]
Platitudes have been criticized as giving a false impression of wisdom, making it easy to accept falsehoods.
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