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hypotenusehippo t1_j6mviad wrote

Houses are still $250k on average over what they were in 2020 in my area. I'd say he still has work to do but whether he has the stones to do it is another matter with all the outside influence

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Jarlwald5 t1_j6myp36 wrote

I thought the same thing when trucks and SUVs shot up to 65k or more with elevated rates. Who the fuck can afford a 70k Tahoe at 6% interest? Well apparently a lot of people can lol. He's got to bring the hurt on some of these people before it makes a dent.

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Mya_Elle_Terego t1_j6n6lau wrote

That shit ain’t coming down until real inflation drops. The commodity market is on steroids. Steel selling for more than aluminum. Those items aren’t based on sentiment, but global commodity rates. I couldn’t believe last June when it was cheaper to buy 3 tons of aluminum than steel at work. That makes cars real cost over double what it was regardless of competition or interest rates.

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TSLA240c t1_j6nmex4 wrote

Oh my sweet summer child, these dudes own the assets they don’t want them to come down, the dollar you work for could be worth less then toilet paper and they wouldn’t bat an eye. Printer is coming.

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alphalegend91 t1_j6og5ii wrote

They're never going back down that far. Houses in essence are meant to be anti inflationary so when there's large inflation the house prices will go down slightly and stay flat at best. The only reason 08 happened was because like 90% of people had ARM's and weren't thoroughly vetted on their sources of income. This is different.

What I have been seeing is a decrease in inventory of homes for sale and a drastic increase in homes for rent. Why would anyone give up those sweet low mortgage rates at a way lower price than what they want?

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hypotenusehippo t1_j6oj22v wrote

I hope you're wrong for my sake haha. I hear you though. I am no psychic and can't claim to predict the catalyst but it does feel unsustainable out there.

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alphalegend91 t1_j6olfbe wrote

I hope I'm wrong too, but as someone who bought their house in 2020 and has a 2.25% 30yr fixed rate I would absolutely buy up another house if it ever crashed and rent out the one I have.

I only put 10% down and my mortgage is $1570 with the $70 a month PMI falling off soon. Rent comps in my area are $2300-2500 for my property. There's no reason for me to ever sell it and I know multiple people in the same boat that would do the same thing.

It's unfortunate, but the rich get richer and everyone else gets left behind.

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cantstopwontstopGME t1_j6p440m wrote

Sad that owning a home is considered “rich” now.. that used to be the absolute bare minimum

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alphalegend91 t1_j6p49od wrote

I wouldn’t consider it rich, but being able to buy multiple properties and renting out the previous ones definitely would fall under that

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AwesomeRevolution98 t1_j6pizyk wrote

Yup exactly. Even if home prices go down like 30% which is a huge amount , 2008 we saw like only a 20% decline, with super high mortgages the net amount paid might actually be more.

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snapIntern t1_j6nelvx wrote

inflation going away just means prices stop going up, not that they would go back to previous prices. that would be deflation.

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freemcgee69420 t1_j6p84xb wrote

London and every city in Canada would like to have a word with you. Not even JPow can save you from this.

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AwesomeRevolution98 t1_j6piouy wrote

That is exactly why I feel that the whole " 5% terminal rate bro and then massive pivot " is some soft landing meme cope . So much more work for feds to do that chances are we might either go past 5% to 6-6.5%, or we stay at 5% for a lot longer then we expect to.

As awesome as some rate cut or ending rates here would be things are still far too overshot to risk doing that now.

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satuuurn t1_j6na089 wrote

I’m highly regarded but I don’t think the costs for houses are going to come down much ever no matter what. Best you’re gonna get are lower rates one day. The farts out of the barn now as they say 🥴

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