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Most_kinds_of_Dirt t1_jaeuatj wrote

Assaults are down. Homicides are up.

I don't think we can speculate that a third variable (deadlier or more accurate guns) caused either of those trends - at least not based on this data alone.


High_DC t1_jaf27yw wrote

It's not that guns are deadlier or more accurate. It's that there are more guns, period. Maybe a few years ago the dude who just killed his two roommates wouldn't have had a gun and would have assaulted them, but he had a ghost gun, apparently, so it became a homicide.


Most_kinds_of_Dirt t1_jaf4ymy wrote

You're still assuming that homicides are replacing assaults.

That's one possible explanation, but there isn't nearly enough information in the chart above to conclude that. An alternative explanation could just be that Covid made people stay inside, and that assaults happen more to strangers on the street while homicide happens more often between people who know each other and who spend lots of time together indoors.

Spending more time indoors could explain those trends just as easily as increased gun ownership. There isn't enough info in the chart above to tell which of those factors is having an impact.