There isn’t conflicting data on sentencing. The modern studies all say the same thing, and it is logically true - do you know the penalty for grand larceny? Aggravated assault? No, of course you don’t. So how is a long potential sentence a deterrent?

I don’t have an instinct on this, I read the data and see what it says. And the modern studies all say the same thing: harsher penalties do not deter crime.