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AmINotAlpharius t1_ja6qxq7 wrote

That's 30 percent of the whole male population, including newborns and extremely old-aged.


xenoghost1 t1_ja6xul4 wrote

well to be fair, Belarus is willing to throw women at the problem since they aren't as stupid but just as cruel as Russia. doing my best to sound as i am not praising Belarus for being significantly less sexist than Russia, but well; "more female war criminals"

again not having a government whose state religion is deeply traditionalist has some advantages when raising an arbitrary number to wave around.


codydodd t1_ja8ce26 wrote

To be honest, this is likely half as much a warning to Ukraine/helping keep the face of pressure for their suzerain, but also likely half as a backup in case Putin invades a Belarus that resists integration. Even Lukashenko acknowledged Russia's annexation plans and tacitly dismissed them.


bluew200 t1_ja9qdn7 wrote

give belarusians guns, and they will give lukashenko a civil war, he knows this, will not happen


fnorksayer t1_ja750pj wrote

And what are they gonna do anyway? To throw potatoes in the Ukrainian tanks?


AmINotAlpharius t1_ja7566a wrote

Do not underestimate Zerg Rush tactics.


ComanderLucky t1_ja76qkg wrote

You've seen how well has Zerg rush worked for Russians in this war? They are using cold war equipment with ww1 tactics, Zerg rush does not work in modern combat with braced, fortified, and well prepared enemy, this waste of life is as potent as their faliure to secure objectives with this tactic


AmINotAlpharius t1_ja77w4l wrote

Any rush grinds out some defender's forces. Small part by small part, inch by inch. It is an extremely inefficient method but it works if the attacker has an unlimited supply of meat.


weealex t1_ja7jwhe wrote

But the point of the zerg rush is to create pressure into a checkmate scenario before your opponent can get established. A 4/6/10 pool is basically dead if the attack is deflected or fails to cause sufficient economic damage. In this analogy, Russia tried a rush, failed to cause sufficient damage, and now Ukraine is getting a fully upgraded army of siege tanks, goliaths, and science vessels


AmINotAlpharius t1_ja7kiir wrote

If you have ten million soldiers and your enemy has nine million bullets, you win.


pythonic_dude t1_ja8ivdq wrote

In real world, by the time you lose five million your soldiers are already hanging you.


weealex t1_ja7lpy8 wrote

Unless the bullets i'm firing kills 2 per shot.


Austoman t1_ja7ykic wrote

Or 1 million soldiers die from friendly fire, starvation, environmental conditions (freezing), overdosing, disease, infighting, and general injury from poor troop movement/management with a complete breakdown of supply lines.

Attrition is a major soldier killer. Its most effective when an army is undersupplied, unprepared, and undisciplined.

Guess what the Russian army is.

All of that also ignores that zerging doesnt work when attempting to occupy a location. When the guerrilla civilian fighters are better equipped both with weapons, equipment, intelligence, and communications, you have a serious problem. Theres a reason you dont invade cities. A city on the defensive is at a significant advantage vs an invading force.


RiverGreen7535 t1_ja9hi0e wrote

Not to mention that if this mobilization happens and they actually get training, Ukraine should have some beefy weapons like the M1, Leopard 1 and 2, along with a bunch of armored transports. . . . . . it's basically a slaughter house running into that weaponry


TarechichiLover t1_ja7cu0j wrote

Yea.. human wave tactics are useless in the 21sy century. Least of all vs western technology. Everything is high volume, high lethality.


AmINotAlpharius t1_ja7dfg9 wrote

Inefficient, but not useless.

If you have more soldiers than your enemy has bullets, you win.


50-Minute-Wait t1_ja7zyf5 wrote

Not if you can’t feed them cause their food rations keep getting blown up.


daniel_22sss t1_ja82vhb wrote

Yeah, good luck competing with american MIC. Lets see how many bullets THEY have.


JavelindOrc t1_ja995cr wrote

The current MIC also doesn't account for the massive amounts of companies, and some of those massive companies themselves, being switched to full production of military goods in a war economy. In that case, human waves would uh....yea I guess we could call them "inefficient" let's go with that.


darkstar3333 t1_ja87fna wrote

Zerg rushes don't work when the enemy has teched up.


2-Legit-2-Quip t1_ja7dw8n wrote

Maybe they should put their elected leader in power. Unfortunately their military is a bunch of traitors to the people.


PsychologicalTalk156 t1_jaa702r wrote

So basically like in every recent war they've ended up in, Belarus is going to end up heavily depopulated


poseidondeep t1_ja6qxq6 wrote

The relationship chicken between Belarus and Russia is so weird to watch


jjb1197j t1_ja6sdq3 wrote

Their relationship is very weird. I can’t understand why Putin doesn’t just take over Belarus and have their soldiers fight for him since that whole country is basically just little Russia.


TheDukeOfMars t1_ja6uiyw wrote

Study Italy during World War 2. Once UK and US invaded Sicily, the fascist party kicked out and arrested Mussolini, then offered to switch sides against Nazis. The Nazis then freed Mussolini, disarmed and replaced all Italian troops on the front to stop allied advance up the peninsula - leading for the need for D-Day/invasion of Normandy.

The second the war starts going badly, Belarus government/people will kick out Lukashenko and Russia will have to effectively occupy the country like Germany did Italy. Good chance Lukashenko meets the same fate as Mussolini when all this is over (which is pretty bad. You should read how he died because history often rhymes).


Zerole00 t1_ja7ppnv wrote

>which is pretty bad.

What? I read your second link and he just got shot, that's not bad at all? Now if we're talking about days of torture involving flaying and fire, that might be getting into the territory of reasonably just.


RecharginMyLaza t1_ja7qu89 wrote

Relative to not dying, getting shot is pretty bad.

OP might be referring to this line in the article though about why it was pretty bad

> At least twelve different individuals have, at various times, been claimed to be the killer.

Could this imply that he was shot multiple times?


jacxy t1_ja9voq2 wrote

I read it like the development of the Ford Mustang.

The saying goes something like "with how many men claim to be the father of the Mustang, I'd hate to be the mother".

Of course that's a shitty and misogynistic thing to say, but it illustrates the way people play up their role in anything worthwhile.


ModsofWTsuckducks t1_jaa3xbv wrote

How he actually died is not really clear. the circumstances and all. It wasn't done in public, only after the fact he was exposed. Which is a shame, he should have been sentenced and killed after a fair trial, then, I think, we would have less fascists wannabe today.


winterwar45 t1_ja80pq2 wrote

I wonder what would happen if Lukashenko dies suddenly


10YearsANoob t1_ja7k75s wrote

Because unlike Russians, Belarussians aren't affected by the 30 years of state sponsored brainwashing. They literally spent the entire covid years clashing with their police and some parts of the military until Russia put a stop to it with their state sponsored face smashers with the name of OMON.


RecommendationPlus56 t1_ja8fgtu wrote

That's simply untrue. Belarus media under full state control and has same level of propaganda as russia. Main protests take only two months - August and September 2021 - just after results of fake elections were published. Peacful protest were supressed just by internal forces of Belarus with cruelty, many people vanished and many more told stories about beatings and tortures by militia and KGB, russian rosgvardiya forces were concetrated near the border and ready to enter Belarus but never did.


poseidondeep t1_ja6ssne wrote

Needs the political cover of Belarus agreeing publicly to join Russia. Can’t take another war / insurgency right now


peter-doubt t1_ja6um9t wrote

He has Lukaschenko.. a ready made, willing puppet.

No reason to fire a shot


ilovefacebook t1_ja6s1vj wrote

can someone eli5 please


Thue t1_ja74b5w wrote

Belarus is a semi-puppet state of Russia, with the unpopular dictator Lukashenko being kept in power by Russians military might. As a Russian puppet state, Russians keeps publicly trying to get Belarus to send their troops into Ukraine, but that would be extremely unpopular to the Belarusian population. So Lukashenko keeps making anti-Ukraine and anti-NATO noises to placate Putin, while at the same time doing everything he can to find and loudly talk about excuses to not actually send their troops into Ukraine.


jahsd t1_ja7nibq wrote

Where do people get it from? Lukashenko managed to pull it off himself, without any help. Give the bastard credit where it's due. He's a master oppressor that makes Putin with his 1mil+ security force look like a little girl.


poseidondeep t1_ja6sq6b wrote

Belarus and Russia both want to fuck but they’re both tops and they both are in the closet


unfalln t1_ja6vhxk wrote

I'm not sure eli5 means what you think it means. 5 year olds generally don't understand the concept of fucking.


sgrams04 t1_ja7pntq wrote

Does that make Ukraine the power bottom?

Edit: that’s supposed to be a compliment


poseidondeep t1_ja9kg5x wrote

Ukraine is the giga chad of giga chads.
Russia is the addict sex worker


Dacadey t1_ja6skui wrote

What a BS lying and misleading headline. Let’s read the actual article:

“Belarus, a small Russian ally bordering Ukraine, has as many as 1.5 million potential military personnel outside its armed forces, a senior official was quoted as saying on Saturday.”

"The structures of the organisations, not the Armed Forces, will amount to somewhere up to 1.5 million people in the event of a declaration of martial law and the switch of the economy to a war mode”


I_Am_Graydon t1_ja9xo9a wrote

Don't be surprised. There's no such thing as the news today. It's all parasitic mass media companies creating stretched truths to scare everyone in to clicking.


Arcturion t1_ja6vg51 wrote

>Lukashenko this month ordered the formation of a new volunteer territorial defence force of up to 150,000 people. He has said his army would fight only if Belarus was attacked.

I'd start running if I was a Belarussian conscript. Where have we heard similar promises before?

Conscripts are cannon fodder. They won't draft conscripts unless they plan to use them.


rip1980 t1_ja6qhs2 wrote

Alright. Can you guys line up? It'll save time.


EightSandy t1_ja72xnk wrote

Wonder if thats to prevent a Russian takeover in case Putin wants a quick win in the absense of success in Ukraine.


Axial-Precession t1_ja79b36 wrote

Only 200k less than the entire fighting age males existing in all of Belarus according to the CIA’s List of global manpower fit for military service

Doubt anything will work in the country if that happens, hopefully it’s a Russia deterrent after that last headline about Russias “previous” plans to absorb its old client state.


likebudda t1_ja6qf7r wrote

> He has said his army would fight only if Belarus was attacked.

I've only heard of one threat to Belarus' sovereignty recently.


Headbangert t1_ja6ry36 wrote

Yeah i give then a 25 % chance invading ukraine, a 25% chance joining ukraine and foght russia and a 90 % chance to kill Lukaschenko... (i know more than 100% but they can still fight russia afterwards)


yourmammadotcomma t1_ja6ue4z wrote

We heard this before from Russia; oh we are not going to invade just you know having people here. It's my opinion that history suggests that its not "case of war", but war to come.


Hugh-Dingus t1_ja794fm wrote

‘Two soldiers, one gun’


OrphanFeast87 t1_ja7ddrc wrote

Sounds like a shit title imo


Hugh-Dingus t1_ja817qw wrote

Reading back it does, I had those soldiers in mind, being sent to war, ill-equipped


Kiltymchaggismuncher t1_ja7ddsd wrote

There is a difference in dynamics, between russia and belarus.

In Russia, putin is still largely popular. In belarus, lukashenko is largely despised.

Conscription is unlikely to go well in belarus. You would be giving guns, to people who despise their own government.


AtomicTardigrade t1_ja7bok4 wrote

This reeks of Italy and Germany relationship during WW2. Who wants to bet Lukashenko will be hanged and Putin will shoot himself in a bunker? Lol


macross1984 t1_ja6rwky wrote

I'll be surprised if Belarusian soldiers could fight better than "professional" soldiers that was mercilessly decimated by Ukrainian.


Shawnchris614 t1_ja6u8bt wrote

Belarus has MAYBE 2.5 million men of fighting age and ability total...


Allemaengel t1_ja7ex4l wrote

And I'm gonna mobilize 1.5 million potential dollars to buy the house of my dreams.


Alexander_Granite t1_ja7lqc9 wrote

Belarus is going up be on the wrong side of history if they invade Ukraine.


BadComboMongo t1_ja7xj8a wrote

Not gonna happen! Lukaschenko is only in power because the new president elect was forced into exile, not because the Belarussian people got his back. Arming 1.5 million people would mean arming those that despite you. I would even bet that as soon as they cross Ukrainian borders they would turn around and start fighting the Russians. Belarussians sabotaged their own railways leading to Ukrainia early into the war, they have people voluntarily fighting in Ukrainia for Ukrainia already. This thread is just scare tactics as they know this will be Lukaschenkos end and will rather end in a disaster for Russia.


HooksaN t1_ja80iff wrote

"He has said his army would fight only if Belarus was attacked."

Is it too optimistic to suggest this could actually be in response to the 'leaked' documents that suggested Russia was planning to take and claim Belarus by 2030?


Sc0nnie t1_ja98d7h wrote

The headline and article are a bit misleading. The quote simply says there are 1.5 million military aged men in Belarus.

They can't effectively mobilize all those men. Their professional military is tiny and poorly equipped.


PiingThiing t1_ja6v9qt wrote

Belarus......when you order Russia on


Jefethevol t1_ja7v209 wrote

they better preorder 1.5 million body bags if that ragtag group of unmotivated civilians are forced into armed conflict. it will be a slaughter. Like the time those Russian mercs decided to roll up on an american FOB in Iraq/Syria. The US asked Russia if the convoy was theirs...the russians denied it and the US went scorched earth on the russian mercs. total slaughter.


chazzmoney t1_ja834yo wrote

I don’t remember the exact details, bit I think the Syria situation was more like:

the US knew it was Russia, they called up and down the chain of command for 4 hours while restraining their defense and avoiding significant attack. Every person they spoke with denied it was Russian. The US then let everyone know that they would attack if the attackers did not retreat. Another hour went by, and they destroyed all enemies.



Diijkstra99x t1_ja6ute4 wrote

sell plane tickets to Bellarus. I think there's a profit there.


bjarkov t1_ja6wnn9 wrote

This statement reminds me of Aesop's The Frog and the Ox


sXyphos t1_ja6yp2j wrote

Oooh so that's the plan, good ol' russian throw so many lives at the problem until the souls of the dead curse them into submission...

If Belarussians people put up with this shit and basically kill themselves for Putin i don't even....


roosterfareye t1_ja70x0x wrote

Here's a tip. They won't. They hate Putin.


sXyphos t1_ja7dyaj wrote

Hopefully that's the case and the people have actual balls unlike russians(i swear for all their depiction of being hardy and strong, russians always let their rulers systematically kill them without any fight)...

It recently came out that Lukashenko esentially sold Belarus to Russia when they helped him stay in power some time ago sooo...


roosterfareye t1_jabi6ty wrote

If Luka tries that he is going to be given the Mussolini treatment....which he is likely to get anyway if he doesn't escape quickly after Russia collapses. Again.


hegotthedream t1_ja7bgja wrote

IS this to help russia in Ukraine or is this to repel a russian incursion


Adventurous_Money533 t1_ja7i2pn wrote

1.5 million people raised does not equeal 1.5 million soldiers. Soldiers in a modern sense of the word implies rigorous training complemented with high tech equipment. I

ts not enough to have a 2 months of basic training and a rifle to be a soldier.

I fear Lukashenko is merely raising warm bodies to be thrown in to a meat grinder.


king_s0mbra5 t1_ja7ms04 wrote

That’s a significant chunk of their population…


Jebusisgreat t1_ja7mz3v wrote

The FSB watches Lukashenko as he sleeps


lonigus t1_ja7oitm wrote

Ceaușescu speedrun any %.


XxHavanaHoneyxX t1_ja7s9eq wrote

I predict riots in Belarus before this happens.


Huge_Ad_8767 t1_ja80kgv wrote

It could be a good test to see how committed there soldiers are regarding this reason ( war ), especially if it is a Ukraine reason .


okram2k t1_ja82pyi wrote

1/7th of their entire population.


PreferenceBoring6342 t1_ja84co2 wrote

But yet this total moron couldn't protect Pootin 🐷,s spy plane 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣


tommytornado t1_ja8r1ni wrote

In case of invasion Belarus will roll over faster than a horny Labrador.


Marthaver1 t1_ja8yr99 wrote

Ahhh the clouds of war assemble!


GusTOrs t1_ja981bv wrote

Why do I get the feeling that as soon as the Belarusian army is busy thing will go ugly at home for luka


Lord_Oim-Kedoim t1_ja9a2l8 wrote

I don’t see how Lukashenko can win here? Like half his Army hates him and Russia. Who do you sent to Ukraine? The ones hating u? They won’t fight the Ukrainians, they might just go AWOL and deliver Ukraine some equipment. The ones that will fight for you? Who will protect you in the country then? Russian troops? Well the ones in Ukraine or the ones inside Russia to suppress the Russian public potentially? That would be the end to his reign and he knows this, as dumb as he may seem, this is the only reason why he hasn’t sent any troops yet, even going against Putin


RSchenck t1_ja9f2om wrote

Someone claims that if it became needed they could potentially call on some people to possibly report in.


Blundix t1_ja9lgui wrote

If Lukashenko actually tries that, he is about to face a humiliating ignorance by the majority of the population. He does not have the backing of the military. It would be the end of his rule.


honeybadger1984 t1_ja9lpat wrote

Those aren’t real numbers. Like people who pay for bots to upvote and give fake views to videos.

They’ll be lucky to find 50,000 quality male soldiers or hunters in that group. Conscripts are going to fold and rout at the first sign of trouble. So I wonder how this propaganda is supposed to work.


freelance-t t1_ja9tbe7 wrote

Hey Belarus, take a hint from GOT… know who would be ripe for invasion right now? Hint: not the country that’s been digging in for a year. But someone else’s army might not be at home right now!


I_Am_Graydon t1_ja9xg7w wrote

So Putin will convince them to join the war, a large chunk of their male population will be killed, and then there will be no one to start a resistance when Russia takes Belarus.


pavolo t1_jaa5spw wrote

Usually dictators are very careful not to arm general population, so I assume this is more against Russia than west.


jorcon74 t1_jaajk20 wrote

Be interesting to see how many show up!


ManyFacedGodxxx t1_jab0c2b wrote

So 12 year olds count as “Soldiers” now? What a joke…


ArchitectNebulous t1_jadkpjs wrote

The last thing Luka wants is to put guns into the hands of his people, as they all hate him.

This is just more posturing for Russia.


navywater t1_ja6xcsg wrote

No they are not.

The correct statement was “we could totally mobilize 1.5 million people if we wanted to nananana boo boo”

They didnt say they actually would

Or atleast lukashenko said they wouldnt, nonody gives a fuck what this senior official says


Amerlis t1_ja6z9ml wrote

I’d imagine they wouldn’t dare. Not unless they want a mass flight of every able bodied male out of the country quicker than they can lock down the borders.


SignificantDetail822 t1_ja7btmi wrote

Yeah and how long does he think it will take Putin to sell him out !


Tiamatium t1_ja6xaar wrote

This is not about Ukraine, this is in case of total war with EU and NATO. Because let's be real, if Russia wins in Ukraine, Poland, Romania and Baltics are next, and if Russia mobilises few million troops before winning, they will press the advantage. As much as we would like it, there is no realistic way where Ukrainians or Polish can inflict 1 to 10 (or even higher) casualty rates.


LiftedPsychedelic t1_jabq9bm wrote

Poland wouldn’t have to inflict 1-10 casualty rates bcs they’re part of nato. The same reason russia won’t touch poland