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DoremusJessup t1_j9g1acc wrote

Did you find a connection between climate change and the rise of far-right autocratic governments?

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npr OP t1_j9g8zr5 wrote

sure did

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BZ852 t1_j9igj0q wrote

To be honest; it was a good read, but the argument felt unconvincing.

The main evidence for far right leaders rising over climate refugees was a single quote from one leader complaining that these are economic migrants.

This is after the bulk of the article refers to the economic welfare of the Senegalese being harmed by overfishing, and them going to Europe to support their families; which does genuinely sound like economic migration -- there's no evidence linking overfishing to climate change (rather than simply boilerplate corruption and poor stewardship that we expect from poorer nations); and the argument about crop harvesting durations doesn't explain whether a changed harvest period is harming the Spanish farms, or wether the season is now longer or shorter.

I am genuinely curious here -- is Senegal not undergoing economic growth, are the opportunities for people shrinking, not growing, are the causes of that linked to climate change, and are people fleeing these countries as a result of this, or just simply because they're seeking a better life in general?

The evidence to the contrary looks strong; Senegal is undergoing strong growth in GDP (15%/year?), Median income (doubled between 2011 and 2018, inflation adjusted), and has historically low employment at 3.72% (2021).

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dopef123 t1_j9m7vki wrote

I think part of the truth is that they were simply trying to mix all the hot topics in that area. Immigration, global warming, far right. It's like hitting every dopamine button of fear for people in Europe.

Yet reporters lack the statistical and scientific background to actually tie any of this together in a concrete way that means anything. The fact is anyone can interview the right people and put together some compelling story that may or may not have much to do with the actual reality for the average person there.

Such a huge percentage of news uses bad stats or shitty arguments that don't make a ton of sense. They should stick to straight basic facts rather than trying to weave these big narratives.

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GrandpasJimJams t1_j9hlake wrote

Wow you managed to confirm the assumptions you already held. How scientific

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