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Utoko t1_ja36wqp wrote

Reply to comment by crossdrubicon in Macron to visit China, seek Xi’s help to end Russia-Ukraine war by BastianMobile

Even if you can push out Russia that doesn't end the war. It will be just like Palestine but with a lot and real rockets.

Just Russia terrorizing Ukraine with rockets across the borders.

All the sanctions have way less effect than the west would like. The exports were down 18.9% in 2022 but that is only if you look at the full year. In the end of the year exports were only down 10.6% YoY. So Russia replaced already 80% of the exports to the EU with exports to other countries.

The GDP went only down by 2.2%.

Ukraine will also not lose they are getting more than enough fresh supply from the west to sustain.

So this defeat you are talking about will take 10 years +. If no one is interested in peace talks which might be the case.

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Midnight2012 t1_ja37y8o wrote

If the Russian armed forces are repelled from ukrainian territory, the collapse of the Russian army and federation is nigh.

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QuantumLaw t1_ja39ei6 wrote

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/impact-sanctions-russian-economy/
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF12092

According to the russians themselves, they have lost 419 000 able-bodied men from their economy since from January-October 2022. These are the rich/educated people that actually can afford to run. People that you really want in your economy.
https://kyivindependent.com/uncategorized/forbes-russia-700-000-people-have-left-russia-since-mobilization-began

Their currency has been isolated so far, they are still being hit hard.

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crossdrubicon t1_ja39mr3 wrote

The current Russian leadership is unlikely to survive being pushed out of Ukraine - and if it does, the country will be broken demographically and economically.

Even if it does lead to an extended, drawn-out conflict we have to let other dictators know that aggression is punished harshly.

Economic sanctions haven’t had as harsh an immediate affect as some hoped, but the country will be bled dry fighting sanctions and a major war at the same time.

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