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ArmChairAnalyst86 t1_je3voqr wrote

You're right to feel the way you do. Russia decided to spend all of its money building missles to counter US ABM systems instead of its actual military and it's amounted to what? I can nuke you better than you can nuke me? Oxymoron.

On paper the Russian ballistic missle fleet is easily the largest and most capable in the world. This is borne from necessity, as all of their existing missles suddenly became much less reliable due to aforementioned ABM system. So they rolled out Yars, Bulava, SARMAT II, Kinzhal, Iskander, Avangard, and Zircon. New missles built after 2000. Limited quantities but deployed in respectable numbers none the less. Some not fully deployed yet and no doubt affected by sanctions. Plus they got their old stocks, what still works anyway.

How many new missles by America entered into active service since 70s? Zero. They field two missles. Minuteman and Trident since the cold war, plus the world's most formidable bomber fleet. Missles have been updated but max at 3 MIRV. Bulava and Yars 6 to 10 MIRV. Russia has a bomber fleet but they'd never make it past water. It's all missles for them.

The Russians know that to hit the north American fortress it will either take massive quantities of missles and warheads to ensure they get through or missles that could theoretically defeat ABM today and near future. Whether they can or not, or whether they work as intended, is up for speculation but that's it on paper.


0utlook t1_je3zn63 wrote

They nuke half a continent on the other side of the globe and still lose the war. There is no victory for anyone post nuclear war. Those not blessed by the quick death of the exchange itself will be left poisoned on a dying Earth.

Flee to the southern hemisphere all ya want. You'll still die with the oceans.


ArmChairAnalyst86 t1_je53z1n wrote

Yep. That's why it probably never happens. Humans are too self preserving to go through with it. The danger is if one side decides that self-preservation isn't a priority.

None the less, nuclear brinkmanship is an old game.


0utlook t1_je5cp8s wrote

It isn't though. We haven't even been at it a solid century yet. I wager it's a rubbish idea all around, and move we fight with drone fleets and astroid bases out around Jupiter.


Omevne t1_jebnfi6 wrote

We almost did launch the nukes, a close call could happen again and we need to be unlucky just once.


ArmChairAnalyst86 t1_jebx7se wrote

That is why this development is so concerning. If Russia decided to be very irresponsible, which they likely will, and stop sharing scheduled tests and similar events, the west has an extremely short window of time to determine whether it's a legit threat or not.

NK doesn't announce theirs, obviously, but they aren't in a state of hybrid conflict with the west in the same manner as Russia is. Besides, their missle game is nowhere near the Russians.

To me it makes this more than posturing and saber rattling if they follow through with it. It is just one more signal we are regressing hard into the cold war, and it's not as cold as it once was.