Comments
reeltub97 t1_iujpn3v wrote
Is production of battery metals region specific enough for this to make sense? With the exception of Venezuela, OPEC's biggest players are all Middle Eastern countries with otherwise similar political interests, that's why it works so well as a block. But from what I can see, production of the metals used in batteries is done all over the place, including countries like Canada and Australia.
S3HN5UCHT t1_iujvuw6 wrote
Mining is a super ugly business most Americans would rather outsourced than see in their backyards and in their water
DoomsdayLullaby t1_iujq046 wrote
You don't need complete market share to influence price, you just need a major portion of it.
reeltub97 t1_iujr6cw wrote
That's true, but the largest producers include Canada and Australia. I know China holds the bulk of production but rare earth metal mining isn't something that can only be done in certain places. Even getting a major portion of the market share seems unlikely when the top 10 producers are scattered on every continent. Half of the worlds lithium is from Australia and the other half is from South America. Forming a cartel on lithium without either is a waste of time
https://www.mining.com/web/ranked-top-25-nations-producing-battery-metals-for-the-ev-supply-chain/
This is from 2020 so I'm not sure how much the market has changed from this diagram.
DoomsdayLullaby t1_iujuxxe wrote
And the largest producer of oil is the US. Several major players in the fossil fuel industry are not in OPEC. You don't need the entire market to create a cartel, you just need a significant portion.
>I know China holds the bulk of production but rare earth metal mining isn't something that can only be done in certain places.
It is from an economical sense, especially when trying to bring battery production to a scale that could facilitate the current global economy in replacing internal combustion engines and the energy storage capacity fossil fuels represent from its current scale which is orders of magnitude smaller.
reeltub97 t1_iujxidt wrote
The United States is the largest producer but not the largest exporter because oil is produced primarily for domestic refinement and consumption. The same thing is not true for lithium unless Australia and Chile are also the largest producers of lithium ion batteries, which they are not. Forming a cartel does require at least a significant portion of market control, you're right, but in a practical sense it's more complicated to make that a political reality. It doesn't matter if a cartel does control 58% of exports if a country that controls 42% of exports can undercut them, it's a waste of time when buyers can take their money elsewhere. OPEC is the exception not the rule and it doesn't seem obvious that the economic or political conditions that made forming OPEC are even possible in the lithium market.
DoomsdayLullaby t1_iujyvtl wrote
>The United States is the largest producer but not the largest exporter because oil is produced primarily for domestic refinement and consumption.
That hasn't been true for the past decade since the shale oil boom. It's one of the largest exporters of oil and the largest exporter of refined oil products.
Battery production encompasses several key minerals, not just lithium.
>It doesn't matter if a cartel does control 58% of exports if a country that controls 42% of exports can undercut them
It does, and especially does when the needed capacity is several orders of magnitude higher than current production levels.
>OPEC is the exception not the rule and it doesn't seem obvious that the economic or political conditions that made forming OPEC are even possible in the lithium market.
Seems like quite the assertion based on little more than intuition.
reeltub97 t1_iuk0gio wrote
Rare earth metals and oil production are not equivalents. Lithium is not the only metal for batteries, but it's necessary for lithium ion batteries which is where rising demand for batteries is coming from. The fact that multiple metals are needed for battery production only supports the fact that forming a global cartel to coordinate the production of each is impractical. OPEC can influence oil prices because it can manage production of a single resource it holds in large quantities. How would abattery metal OPEC equivalent coordinate that? It's a safe intuition to rest on that forming global cartels is the exception not the rule when they are relatively rare in mineral exports. The only similarities between oil and battery metal production seems to be that both come from the ground. I would think it's safe to assume that the economic and political wrangling of enough countries that produce meaningful proportions of battery metals is not something that is likely to succeed. After all, the belief that "all it takes is a significant portion of the market" ignores that global cartels actually aren't very common.
[deleted] t1_iuk5g0g wrote
That’s pretty pointless, Battery chemistry are going to change a lot as they move to solid state. Far less rare metal will be needed and they will be significantly recyclable. Nickel, cobalt and manganese are not going to be needed all that much longer.
chefca3 t1_iujv9y9 wrote
It will never happen.
It would only take one or two of the current world powers to send some private diplomatic communications hinting at the living hell that would be unleashed in this scenario - and none of the major countries worldwide are above this kind of "union busting" activity.
Allowing the oil producing countries to organize was one of the biggest "mistakes" the evil men in power worldwide ever made.
S3HN5UCHT t1_iujvq5p wrote
No bueno
reddiguurder t1_iujmgyx wrote
Is this the UNO reverse card for 4 centuries of Dutch colonization?