No, the point was not that the facts are true.

The point was the facts are probably false, but they logically support Russia's actions.

In order to show they're false, what's necessary? Well, whoever carried out the first wartime surface-drone attack on a ship in the history of the planet, needs to give away information about how they actually did it. That's not going to happen obviously.

So, Russia has come up with a scenario where they can do something they desperately wanted to do - kill the grain program - while having "A justification" (to quote myself from above with all the same caveats) to do so.

Again, they usually aren't that smart.