Bankful t1_ixvn9b8 wrote
Normalizing the launch of nuclear-capable delivery vehicles so that the real deal would be dismissed as a ruse for the few minutes when it could be intercepted.
litivy t1_ixvx3yr wrote
This is the worst possibility. That and a live one being launched through incompetence.
mmm__donuts t1_ixvykrn wrote
Is it possible to tell a nuclear-capable cruise missile from a conventional one on radar? That seems like it would be difficult to do.
tito333 t1_ixw1ndh wrote
The Russians know that their nuclear missile storage sites are being monitored by every spy satellite imaginable. They can move the missiles around and no one can truly know when they won't remove the warhead.
mmm__donuts t1_ixw5y4w wrote
Do they generally store the nuclear-capable cruise missiles with the warheads attached? I imagine that makes the security a lot more complicated.
tito333 t1_ixzgftk wrote
They have a lot of missiles ready to go, same as the US with the ICBM silos in the Midwest.
mmm__donuts t1_ixzkeol wrote
Yes. I was asking about cruise missiles, not ICBMs.
tito333 t1_iy0d5jj wrote
From what I read in the WSJ, they keep them their nuclear missiles at storage sites, and it's possible for satellites to view when there's movement going on. https://www.wsj.com/video/series/wsj-explains/the-mechanics-of-russias-nuclear-arsenal-explained/916534DC-84D1-407A-B03C-F4957B70DAF4
mmm__donuts t1_iy5m4u5 wrote
I can't get through the paywall, but the blurb for the source you linked mentions warheads, not missiles. Additionally, when someone says "nuclear missiles" they almost always mean ICBMs, not cruise missiles.
LevHB t1_ixwl5g1 wrote
No. It looks the same from the outside. Will the difference in the inert concrete head vs nuclear warhead create slight differences in flight dynamics? Yes. Will it create some sort of difference that could be measured with any technology anyone on earth has? Extremely unlikely, especially since local weather, per missile build tolerances, per sensor tolerance, etc etc would all have a much bigger impact.
So I would go with a very simple no. No you cannot tell what's in it.
Ceratisa t1_ixw5e27 wrote
We calculate launch angle/trajectory using sophisticated algorithms to determine their destination. That's part of why we don't always prepare to fire a volley of nukes for every nuclear warhead capable missile Russia launches into Ukraine.
mmm__donuts t1_ixw5o5b wrote
>We calculate launch angle/trajectory using sophisticated algorithms to determine their destination.
For a cruise missile?
Ceratisa t1_ixw5t1r wrote
Cruise missiles are a common platform for nuclear capable delivery
mmm__donuts t1_ixw68j4 wrote
>Cruise missiles are a common platform for nuclear capable delivery
Yes. They're the one being referred to in this article. My question was whether it is possible to calculate their target from their launch trajectory since being able to change direction in flight is kind of the defining feature of a cruise missile.
Ceratisa t1_ixw6ovu wrote
Yes, without things like scramjets these missiles do still have limited ranges, so arc and height still matter. We also track launches with satellites and when possible, long range radars
mmm__donuts t1_ixwh7hq wrote
Cool. TIL. Is it possible to differentiate the nuclear-capable version of a cruise missile from its conventional counterpart based on these satellite or radar data? Or was the guy I responded to originally incorrect?
Ceratisa t1_ixwza4m wrote
No, you misunderstood what I was saying. We can guess if it's a nuclear missile based on flight path because of the destination itself. There are targets you'd nuke and targets you wouldn't and by calculating their destination we can make good educated guesses.
mmm__donuts t1_ixx2ny8 wrote
I'm still confused. Are you saying that we can make those guesses quickly enough to make decisions about what to shoot down and what to ignore based on an estimate of whether the payload is nuclear?
LevHB t1_ixwly98 wrote
>We calculate launch angle/trajectory using sophisticated algorithms to determine their destination.
It's a cruise missile, so no you cannot tell, unless it's a very simple missile with very very simple programming.
The reason you literally cannot tell, is that it's ambiguous until a later point in its journey. Before that a cruise missile aimed at another target could also have taken the same path up to that point.
And as far as can we tell whether a Kh-55 has a nuclear warhead, or a concrete warhead? No we cannot. They look the same from the outside. They might have ever so slightly different slight characteristics, but per-missile flight characteristics are going to vary more than whether they have a warhead, so again no one knows except those who launched it (well I hope they know).
monkywrnch t1_ixzik27 wrote
There's no ignoring an incoming missile... they would be attempting to intercept anything regardless if it's nuclear or not.
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