Gorperly t1_j27ni1u wrote
Reply to comment by -SPOF in Armenians turn fire toward Russia as Nagorno-Karabakh blockade enters third week by machinesaredumb
Nah, Russias still strong enough to squash Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan is no Ukraine, their army is comparatively tiny and modestly equipped.
But Russia is doing nothing not because they're afraid. They are trying to compel Armenia to join their shitty alliance, and are happy to wipe their ass with their own peace deal in the process. Armenia is stuck between a rock and a hard place. No one else will bail them out. They either cede territory to the Azeris or become Russia's puppet Belarus style.
Mirathecat22 t1_j280br5 wrote
Azerbaijan is heavily supported by Turkey though. Russia doesn’t want that fight, especially while they’re losing in Ukraine.
kaisadilla_ t1_j2893lk wrote
But not by the West. Azerbaijan is fighting for their right to exterminate Armenians, and that's a fight the West won't pick. If anything, and under normal conditions, we'd be secretly helping Russia if somehow Russia couldn't manage to get it done by itself (which, before the Ukrainian war, never happened).
Mirathecat22 t1_j28aar5 wrote
They don’t need the west though they just need Turkey. With Russias military already wrapped up, that’s all they really need, Russia really can’t afford to to fight Turkey.
If anything were to happen, the west would let it go until Russia were beaten and then send a peace keeping force to occupy Armenia to make sure Turkey and Azerbaijan don’t mess it up anymore than it would already be. Thus giving Armenia a sense of security, and also in the end the Nagorno-Karabakh area probably gets given to Azerbaijan in exchange for more security guarantees.
aScottishBoat t1_j28t6r5 wrote
> losing in Ukraine
It's nice to read this. Fuck fascism.
peteboogerjudge t1_j2axmna wrote
Russia's working with Azerbaijan and Turkey.
Creepy_Helicopter223 t1_j27quv8 wrote
I do agree Russia is trying to force them to join, but outside of the nuclear shield and mass infantry they can’t really do much else.
Even if Azerbaijan isn’t Ukraine that doesn’t ignore logistics. Azerbaijan had roughly 126,000 military personnel, 300k reserves and 3M available conscripts, they have been prepping and training for war, and have mountainous geography.
For Russia to win they would need to either fight their way through Georgia to get to Armenia, convoy them through the Black Sea avoiding Ukrainian drones and using up their limited naval infrastructures, or would have to attack and fight their way through the mountainous terrain of Azerbaijan itself, with their supply lines going through their own internal caucus region which is full of hotspots.
And they have to do this at scale. The military personal to get their and hold off a full Azerbaijan assault would number in the 10s to 100s of thousands as Armenia has a population of 1/3 Azerbaijans and thus doesn’t have a similiar size military. Men who would need fed, clothed, supplied, trained, transported, ect… and all the people supporting them need it to.
If Armenia got fully annexed by Russia, Russia could probably either through enough meat at Azerbaijan to get it doneX or threaten with WMDs. But outside of that Russia is really weak right now.
They can hardly operating right next to their border…
arev301 t1_j27wnz3 wrote
Quite a good analysis except you forgot Russia borders Azerbaijan itself so could just attack them directly, and also already has military bases in Armenia and a way to bring in soldiers through air. Their biggest problem wouldn’t be those aspects, it would be Turkey intervening because it has a military alliance with Azerbaijan. And because Turkey and Azerbaijan share a genocidal hate for Armenians.
istandabove t1_j281s90 wrote
By your theory shouldn’t Russia be able to do well in Ukraine? It borders it. Lol any troop movement by air would get demolished if they started a war with Azerbaijan.
And that’s without Turkey getting involved. I highly doubt they’d stand by if Russia started attacking Azeri’s and defending Armenia. It would be game over.
They can certainly attack. As we’ve seen them in Ukraine. But if they can’t take and hold flat land on their border without heavy loses. They can’t start a Second war in a mountainous region.
arev301 t1_j291uj1 wrote
Dude, half of your first analysis was about how Russia would have to get to Armenia to invade Azerbaijan. I’m simply pointing out that’s incorrect. As for your comments about Turkey, that’s what I already added as their main problem.
lmsoa971 t1_j28jmpm wrote
Ukraine has been training its soldiers for a war against Russia for years. NATO trained too, and well equipped by the US.
Ukraine prepared for an attack from the Russian front and it’s these same barricades and fortifications that were built by experts over the years that are standing their ground in the Donbass and Kharkov regions.
Azerbaijan hasn’t prepared for any of that… Azerbaijan doesn’t even have an adequate anti-Air system since they were gonna fight Armenia who has close to nothing in air capabilities.
Azerbaijan also does not have an adequate air industry, but it has a shit ton of drones, and we see how well the Bayraktars are performing after the first month against Russian systems in Ukraine…and we know the reason why they got popularized was because of their success in the 2nd NK war, against no actual air defense systems.. and now we wonder why there are barely any bayraktar videos.
geopolitically speaking Azerbaijan has for the past 2 years closed all land borders for its citizens except for trade and such, and all Military personnel and weaponry from Turkey pass from Georgia and Georgia only. Since neither Iran or Armenia allow it.
Also for a mountainous expedition, Azerbaijan and Russia will be on even playing fields at the start since they both have elevated and mountainous regions on their border. But unlike Ukraine, the density of population is extremely small in rural areas. And the amount of big cities is also small.
And main transit routes are from plane fields and non-mountainous regions. So Russia might simply use the sea roads to advance forward, like how Azerbaijan did against Armenia (using Irans border to advance) and unlike what Russia is doing now (pushing into direct Ukrainian territory)
We’re also not mentioning that Azerbaijan, unlike Ukraine, also doesn’t have an internal military-industrial complex, that produces armored vehicles (like Poland, Bulgaria, and the entirety of Europe sending weapons to Ukraine). And no neighbors willing to sell their own, except Turkey who will need to spend millions from his already dwindling economy to do so.
istandabove t1_j29rl5x wrote
Ah i see you’re Armenian, sorry you picked the wrong side.
Creepy_Helicopter223 t1_j2azqxx wrote
I literally stated they would have to fight their way through the mountainous of Azerbaijan while their supply routes would pass through the unstable caucus regions. So yes I have considered that, and it’s also an awful option.
Good look transporting Russians through Dagestan with supplies to then fight with Azerbaijan dug into the mountains.
And their Armenia bases are small and not fully staffed, they couldn’t handle a defense alone and don’t have the ability to feed or support a large force.
Your right about Turkey tho, that is also a big thing preventing Russia from ever acting
[deleted] t1_j27rowi wrote
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SmokeyUnicycle t1_j29kah1 wrote
Russia absolutely cannot squash Azerbaijan.
Their armed forces are disproportionately large and modern because they've been pumping tons of oil money into them to fight Armenia for many years now.
While in a 1v1 Russia could doubtless win right now Russia is throwing everything they can into Ukraine, and Azerbaijan is way more than they can add to their plate right now.
tertius_decimus t1_j29f1kg wrote
Azerbaijan will be fine, backed heavily by Turkish army and Turks won't fuck around.
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