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Creepy_Helicopter223 t1_j27quv8 wrote

Reply to comment by Gorperly in Armenians turn fire toward Russia as Nagorno-Karabakh blockade enters third week by machinesaredumb

I do agree Russia is trying to force them to join, but outside of the nuclear shield and mass infantry they can’t really do much else.

Even if Azerbaijan isn’t Ukraine that doesn’t ignore logistics. Azerbaijan had roughly 126,000 military personnel, 300k reserves and 3M available conscripts, they have been prepping and training for war, and have mountainous geography.

For Russia to win they would need to either fight their way through Georgia to get to Armenia, convoy them through the Black Sea avoiding Ukrainian drones and using up their limited naval infrastructures, or would have to attack and fight their way through the mountainous terrain of Azerbaijan itself, with their supply lines going through their own internal caucus region which is full of hotspots.

And they have to do this at scale. The military personal to get their and hold off a full Azerbaijan assault would number in the 10s to 100s of thousands as Armenia has a population of 1/3 Azerbaijans and thus doesn’t have a similiar size military. Men who would need fed, clothed, supplied, trained, transported, ect… and all the people supporting them need it to.

If Armenia got fully annexed by Russia, Russia could probably either through enough meat at Azerbaijan to get it doneX or threaten with WMDs. But outside of that Russia is really weak right now.

They can hardly operating right next to their border…

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arev301 t1_j27wnz3 wrote

Quite a good analysis except you forgot Russia borders Azerbaijan itself so could just attack them directly, and also already has military bases in Armenia and a way to bring in soldiers through air. Their biggest problem wouldn’t be those aspects, it would be Turkey intervening because it has a military alliance with Azerbaijan. And because Turkey and Azerbaijan share a genocidal hate for Armenians.

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istandabove t1_j281s90 wrote

By your theory shouldn’t Russia be able to do well in Ukraine? It borders it. Lol any troop movement by air would get demolished if they started a war with Azerbaijan.

And that’s without Turkey getting involved. I highly doubt they’d stand by if Russia started attacking Azeri’s and defending Armenia. It would be game over.

They can certainly attack. As we’ve seen them in Ukraine. But if they can’t take and hold flat land on their border without heavy loses. They can’t start a Second war in a mountainous region.

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arev301 t1_j291uj1 wrote

Dude, half of your first analysis was about how Russia would have to get to Armenia to invade Azerbaijan. I’m simply pointing out that’s incorrect. As for your comments about Turkey, that’s what I already added as their main problem.

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lmsoa971 t1_j28jmpm wrote

Ukraine has been training its soldiers for a war against Russia for years. NATO trained too, and well equipped by the US.

Ukraine prepared for an attack from the Russian front and it’s these same barricades and fortifications that were built by experts over the years that are standing their ground in the Donbass and Kharkov regions.

Azerbaijan hasn’t prepared for any of that… Azerbaijan doesn’t even have an adequate anti-Air system since they were gonna fight Armenia who has close to nothing in air capabilities.

Azerbaijan also does not have an adequate air industry, but it has a shit ton of drones, and we see how well the Bayraktars are performing after the first month against Russian systems in Ukraine…and we know the reason why they got popularized was because of their success in the 2nd NK war, against no actual air defense systems.. and now we wonder why there are barely any bayraktar videos.

geopolitically speaking Azerbaijan has for the past 2 years closed all land borders for its citizens except for trade and such, and all Military personnel and weaponry from Turkey pass from Georgia and Georgia only. Since neither Iran or Armenia allow it.

Also for a mountainous expedition, Azerbaijan and Russia will be on even playing fields at the start since they both have elevated and mountainous regions on their border. But unlike Ukraine, the density of population is extremely small in rural areas. And the amount of big cities is also small.

And main transit routes are from plane fields and non-mountainous regions. So Russia might simply use the sea roads to advance forward, like how Azerbaijan did against Armenia (using Irans border to advance) and unlike what Russia is doing now (pushing into direct Ukrainian territory)

We’re also not mentioning that Azerbaijan, unlike Ukraine, also doesn’t have an internal military-industrial complex, that produces armored vehicles (like Poland, Bulgaria, and the entirety of Europe sending weapons to Ukraine). And no neighbors willing to sell their own, except Turkey who will need to spend millions from his already dwindling economy to do so.

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istandabove t1_j29rl5x wrote

Ah i see you’re Armenian, sorry you picked the wrong side.

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Creepy_Helicopter223 t1_j2azqxx wrote

I literally stated they would have to fight their way through the mountainous of Azerbaijan while their supply routes would pass through the unstable caucus regions. So yes I have considered that, and it’s also an awful option.

Good look transporting Russians through Dagestan with supplies to then fight with Azerbaijan dug into the mountains.

And their Armenia bases are small and not fully staffed, they couldn’t handle a defense alone and don’t have the ability to feed or support a large force.

Your right about Turkey tho, that is also a big thing preventing Russia from ever acting

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