macross1984 t1_j22qi27 wrote
Russia is not serious about peace negotiation. Putin must be dreaming that no matter how painful it is Russia will emerge as final victor except as time passes he will be strangulated financially, his military ruined, his country end up as pariah of the West.
sandyfagina t1_j22syp9 wrote
>strangulated financially, his military ruined, his country end up as pariah of the West.
1 and 3 are givens. We have no idea how true 2 is.
Peace negotiations should be inevitable because neither side wants a forever war. Or is that a bad assumption?
macross1984 t1_j22wg5m wrote
At the rate Russia is losing its hardware the military is having difficult time replacing so much so that army is reactivating Soviet era battle tank that has sat in mothball for decades.
Their air force was supposed to clear the sky of Ukrainian air force but failed to do so and instead are getting shot down so much so that they rarely make sortie into Ukrainian territory.
Their navy have suffered major embarrassment when guided missile cruiser Moskova was sunk by Ukrainian cruise missiles and navy was forced to restrict movement of their ships in Black Sea due to fear of losing more ships.
Perhaps ruin is wrong term. More correctly, Russian military will be severely weakened and will be no shape to do another Ukrainian style invasion should the war continue unabated.
I read that estimated Russian troops killed in action or wounded already surpassed 100,000. That is a loss hard to swallow especially when Russia is on its way to shrinking population even before the war.
Still, I hope I am wrong and peace negotiation at least will be attempted by both countries.
sandyfagina t1_j22x7v8 wrote
That's true, it's clearly significantly weakened. I hope that's a driver for peace talks, but that depends on what Ukraine does.
Reasons for Russia's continuance are the fresh recruits and belief that existing production can hold the current defensive lines. Which is believable considering it's been a standstill for months. Or at least, not much changes in controlled territory on either side.
I guess that non-activity is a good sign? Both sides have mentioned negotiations recently. Peace is always preferable from a human perspective.
Puzzleheaded-Job2235 t1_j24lbro wrote
Generally the Russo Ukrainian War has had long periods of attritional fighting followed by rapid changes in territory when one side loses too many people to hold the current frontlines. So although it's a stalemate for now, things could change rapidly. Kherson was a months long slog with little signs of progress till the Russians suddenly retreated.
sandyfagina t1_j24mpw8 wrote
They're behind the river now, which they say makes it easier for them to hold out. That was the line predicted by Dmitri Alperovitch by the way, the expert who predicted the invasion 2 months before it happened.
Its_Just_A_Typo t1_j25zxs1 wrote
Ukraine is about to retake Kreminna, when they do, it will set up a series of dominoes falling as that cuts off crucial Ruz supply lines and then they'll lose a large part of Luhansk Oblast in one big shot.
foobarijk t1_j23gh75 wrote
The fact that the line hasn't moved does not mean there's no activity in the front. hundreds die per day in the trenches.
sandyfagina t1_j23zw2f wrote
I didn’t say there was no activity lol
Fuddlemann t1_j235jj8 wrote
Might also explain the build-up on Russia's southern front of Mongolian Tatars itching to retake Moscow while Russia is in a weakened state.
msnrcn t1_j23ilrt wrote
The WHAT?
krneki12 t1_j23gqnn wrote
South and Best Korea are still at war.
sandyfagina t1_j23zyv3 wrote
At least they stopped killing each other
krneki12 t1_j24vtry wrote
just saying that everything is still on the table at the moment.
There will be no peace talks until Ukraine feels secure enough, as 0 trust is given to Russian words.
sandyfagina t1_j252j5r wrote
Once you add the variable of security guarantees for both Ukraine and Russia, guaranteed by 3rd party countries, talks could be fruitful.
krneki12 t1_j25fqxq wrote
the first variable to check out is Russian soldiers inside Ukraine, peace talks will start when they go back home.
kambleton t1_j25q05p wrote
This point is impossible for this guy to understand. Third party guarantees roping other countries into a full scale third world war when Russia inevitably goes back on it's word like it did in February and a million times before.
sandyfagina t1_j25s4ng wrote
NATO is the reason Russia doesn't invade the Baltic states. Security guarantees for Japan aren't causing a war with China. You're getting an F on the basics.
[deleted] t1_j25t2vw wrote
[removed]
medievalvelocipede t1_j23y80q wrote
>Peace negotiations should be inevitable because neither side wants a forever war. Or is that a bad assumption?
Unfortunately, yes. What's in Putin's interest is not the same as Russia's interest.
It would have been closer to the same if he wasn't fed bullshit all the time, but when you surround yourself with yes-men and kill anyone who disagrees, that's what you get.
Russia could continue to lob missiles at Ukraine indefinitely. At which point it depends on if sanity will prevail in Russia and Putin will fall out of a window repeatedly or whether we can offer to lighten sanctions to make them stop.
Personally I'd prefer a different kind of solution, but it's not one I'd imagine the western nations will stomach.
sandyfagina t1_j2402yp wrote
Even the US says Putin is getting more accurate info now
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