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macross1984 t1_j22wg5m wrote

Reply to comment by sandyfagina in Russia steps up Kherson shelling, dismisses Zelenskiys peace plan by Ok_bro_1

At the rate Russia is losing its hardware the military is having difficult time replacing so much so that army is reactivating Soviet era battle tank that has sat in mothball for decades.

Their air force was supposed to clear the sky of Ukrainian air force but failed to do so and instead are getting shot down so much so that they rarely make sortie into Ukrainian territory.

Their navy have suffered major embarrassment when guided missile cruiser Moskova was sunk by Ukrainian cruise missiles and navy was forced to restrict movement of their ships in Black Sea due to fear of losing more ships.

Perhaps ruin is wrong term. More correctly, Russian military will be severely weakened and will be no shape to do another Ukrainian style invasion should the war continue unabated.

I read that estimated Russian troops killed in action or wounded already surpassed 100,000. That is a loss hard to swallow especially when Russia is on its way to shrinking population even before the war.

Still, I hope I am wrong and peace negotiation at least will be attempted by both countries.

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sandyfagina t1_j22x7v8 wrote

That's true, it's clearly significantly weakened. I hope that's a driver for peace talks, but that depends on what Ukraine does.

Reasons for Russia's continuance are the fresh recruits and belief that existing production can hold the current defensive lines. Which is believable considering it's been a standstill for months. Or at least, not much changes in controlled territory on either side.

I guess that non-activity is a good sign? Both sides have mentioned negotiations recently. Peace is always preferable from a human perspective.

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Puzzleheaded-Job2235 t1_j24lbro wrote

Generally the Russo Ukrainian War has had long periods of attritional fighting followed by rapid changes in territory when one side loses too many people to hold the current frontlines. So although it's a stalemate for now, things could change rapidly. Kherson was a months long slog with little signs of progress till the Russians suddenly retreated.

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sandyfagina t1_j24mpw8 wrote

They're behind the river now, which they say makes it easier for them to hold out. That was the line predicted by Dmitri Alperovitch by the way, the expert who predicted the invasion 2 months before it happened.

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Its_Just_A_Typo t1_j25zxs1 wrote

Ukraine is about to retake Kreminna, when they do, it will set up a series of dominoes falling as that cuts off crucial Ruz supply lines and then they'll lose a large part of Luhansk Oblast in one big shot.

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foobarijk t1_j23gh75 wrote

The fact that the line hasn't moved does not mean there's no activity in the front. hundreds die per day in the trenches.

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Fuddlemann t1_j235jj8 wrote

Might also explain the build-up on Russia's southern front of Mongolian Tatars itching to retake Moscow while Russia is in a weakened state.

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