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dbratell t1_j1ufdgh wrote

While good news, it's still terrible. :(

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Sticky_Robot t1_j1vivl0 wrote

Not as bad as it sounds. That GDP loss isn't from cities being leveled it's from people fleeing the country / the front lines. After the war ends a lot of those people will return and the GDP will bounce back. Factories can be rebuilt, raw resources are still in the ground etc. Add in the likely western marshal plan to rebuild and Ukraine could come back stronger than ever.

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Vertitto t1_j1vn2be wrote

as long as the funds will be used well. Both Ukrainians and EU/other donators should control each penny and punish misuse harshly

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UnapologeticBritish t1_j1vnce3 wrote

Well, the political will is there. One large contributor for this war was the ousting of previous corrupt russia-alighned governments.

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Vertitto t1_j1vnzhq wrote

that can switch quickly once funds start flowing. It was (and still is) a problem in EU, it will be a big check for Ukraine as it was much longer under super corrupt system

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Schyte96 t1_j1wbxsk wrote

Could be a really interesting EU readiness test if you think about it.

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thatsme55ed t1_j1w1bfc wrote

Hopefully the fact that a significant proportion of the people in the country are trained and experienced in violence as a problem solving method will actually be a stabilizing factor.

Normal corruption methods don't work when you have to worry the person you're trying to swindle has an AK47 in their closet. When the GI's returned to America from WW2 there was at least one instance of them clearing out a corrupt local government the hard way.

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Vertitto t1_j1wmoiu wrote

it can also work the other way - war ends, infrastructure is ruined, lot of potential shady people as ton of people/docuemnts are lost, many home companies are killed off by foreign corporations or getting bought, ton of scams pop up when big money starts to flow, lot of weapons everywhere and thousands of people with military trauma

It's a prime environment for organised crime, it can be '90s all over again

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thatsme55ed t1_j1wxmzl wrote

Yeah that's possible, but the influx of money after will help stabilize Ukraine like the Marshall plan. South Korea after the Korean War and Europe after WW2 show it's possible to avoid a full on collapse of society if you give people funds, hope and a plan.

The 90's was a collapse because the entire system collapsed into total anarchy after the internal rot reached the tipping point. No one knew who to trust or how to make things work.

Ukraine has friends, access to Europe, access to credit, easy access to the internet and information, a charismatic leader and a population that is motivated to build back better.

It's not guaranteed of course, but corruption by definition involves stealing from the many to benefit the few. When the many are trained, disciplined and motivated it's a lot harder to do that.

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TROPtastic t1_j1wfgao wrote

Corruption in Ukraine deserves a lot of scrutiny, for sure. Fortunately, Ukraine has an active and resilient network of civil activists that the EU/outside NGOs can help, instead of trying to build an anti-corruption culture from scratch.

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mothtoalamp t1_j1w9yae wrote

Aversion to Russian influence will likely be at an all time high when reconstruction begins. That should help somewhat.

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1MoralHazard t1_j1vqb28 wrote

The inherent selfishhness that drives corruption is often set aside during times of collective trauma. Your neighbor suffered just as much as you when you had to cower in the hallways during the raid sirens as the missiles annihilated the playground outside. As terrible as this has been, this will rebuild a certain comraderie that was destroyed by years of engrained soviet "individualism".

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MyGoodOldFriend t1_j1vvemy wrote

Nope. Corruption does not die during times of struggle. I can’t think of a single historical example.

The conception that “common struggle brings out the best in us” is largely from the event turning into a national story. The blitz, for example, was characterized by an epidemic of crime and chaos - which was turned into a simplistic story about a stiff upper lip in the postwar years.

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porncrank t1_j1y70ys wrote

You're right and wrong. Which isn't that surprising when talking about something as broad and complex as human society. There's no question that people can and often do band together and help each other during times of suffering. There are countless examples. It's just that not all people do. Even in the most cohesive societies helping each other out there are always corrupt and selfish individuals -- opportunists preying on the rest. They will always be there.

So when hard times come, the majority of common people work together to survive. But they do so under attack from a handful of shitty people that can only think to enrich themselves.

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MyGoodOldFriend t1_j1y7mji wrote

Yeah, exactly. The point is that societal problems don’t go away in times of a common struggle. Like corruption during an invasion, or crime during the blitz. There was and is plenty of good that comes out, though - of course.

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osuvetochka t1_j1wgtgx wrote

I’m curious why do you believe that a lot of people who fled will go back?

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stjornmala_junkie t1_j1wn5p3 wrote

Yeah, it historically says otherwise, and I don't blame people for not wanting to move back

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BurialA12 t1_j1xuye0 wrote

Ukraine before 2022 already had the largest % of diaspora

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Thrilling1031 t1_j1von0a wrote

If the EU and NATO are worth their salt, the rebuilding of Ukraine needs to be incredible. They need to show the value in being an ally if they want to keep their members and alliances strong. It one thing to sanction and condemn Russia, providing weapons is great, but if ultimately Ukraine comes out of this worse, then what good do those alliances truly offer?

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Alchemist2121 t1_j1w57oa wrote

The EU is debt trapping Ukraine with loans not grants. US is giving the money, the EU is loaning it

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MistarGrimm t1_j1wwlsf wrote

The us is pretty clear the stuff isn't free. They're lenient, but not that lenient.

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Phytanic t1_j1xc7hm wrote

a lot it IS free though. You can argue all you want about "the implication" of it, but it's quite literally grants and aid. Yes, lend-lease isn't free, but the vast majority of stuff thus far has not been loans

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FellowTraveler69 t1_j1wqtv8 wrote

A good chunk of those who left aren't coming back. My gut says anywhere from 1/3 to 1/4. That all depends though on how fast the conflict resolves. The longer the wat goes on, the more refugees will establish new lives in the West and have less incentives to go back. To be cynical, a large amount of young people may benefit from the war, as it allowed them to immigrate easily to far wealthier countries with greater opportunities in the West.

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Murky-Ad-1982 t1_j1wdfo5 wrote

Its pretty bad if the war is prolonged since ukraine would rely on western side to keep the economy going and you know people are gonna complain about that.

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TPconnoisseur t1_j1wirvf wrote

They will be the next South Korea, possibly more so.

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Throwaway_g30091965 t1_j1wujzn wrote

I'm hopefully wrong, but it's really skeptical to see if Ukraine can economically recover quickly from the war or even achieving their equivalent of East Asian economic miracle.

First, the current demographic of Ukraine is worlds apart compared to East Asian countries in the 60s-70s (After WWII and other Asian Wars). The latter have had demographic pyramids resembling more of present day African nations while the former has a demographic pyramid resembling more of Western European nations. We've known the fact that demographic balance is a great predictor of economic success, which means that Ukraine's economy potential has already been crippled in this front

Second, the proximity of Ukraine to wealthy countries that are happily accepting Ukrainian immigrants also hindered their economy growth. Compared this to East Asia back after the war, when their immigrants need to cross continents and oceans to settle in wealthy countries, since all of their neighboring nations were also war torn and poverty stricken, which means that a lot of them stayed to rebuilt their country. A comparison of wages shows that even being a hard laborer in Western Europe yield better wages than working as a mid-level white collar professional in Ukraine. So rationally, why would you stay in Ukraine after settling in other European countries? They have already been bleeding population since the fall of Soviet Union, and I don't think this trend will reverse at all.

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abecido t1_j1xwmrs wrote

> After the war ends

Why would the war end?

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