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green_flash OP t1_j6oah9r wrote

Russia itself still expects a 0.8 percent decline in 2023.


SunsetKittens t1_j6ola7w wrote

Numbers are bullshit when so much depends on black swans - real world events and developments. With all the chaos swirling around Russia right now it could easily be 5% growth or 10% contraction depending on events.

I don't even use numbers when making my financial decisions!


TrackVol t1_j6ob0es wrote

How in the world do they come up with that number?


green_flash OP t1_j6odxjk wrote

The report summary says that they expect a further fall in trade with sanctioning countries that will however be offset by a rise in trade with non-sanctioning countries.

Developments like this are relevant I suppose:


TrackVol t1_j6oy3sm wrote

That's something I hadn't considered. Non-sactioning countries picking up some of the slack.


Rubence_VA t1_j6of9ua wrote

Yes because UK is buying Russian gas from India, so they are not losing any money.


autotldr t1_j6ody44 wrote

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 73%. (I'm a bot)

> Boris Grozovski, a Russian economics expert from the Wilson Center think tank, told Newsweek the most interesting aspect of the IMF forecast was its estimate of 0.3 percent GDP growth for Russia this year, compared with Moscow's prediction of a 0.8 percent decline.

> "It seems to me that it is impossible to give a clear forecast for 2023 for now, but the decline of the economy by 1 to 2 percent, given the possible continuation of mobilization in Russia, seems more likely than economic growth."

> Ben May, director of global macro research at Oxford Economics, told Newsweek that the war in Ukraine, commodity prices and sanctions "Are going to be especially crucial" in determining Russia's baseline GDP forecast over the next two years.

Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: growth^#1 percent^#2 economic^#3 year^#4 IMF^#5


_CHIFFRE t1_j6oyss2 wrote

The coping from some people in here is quite entertaining i have to say.

Good for the Russian people i guess.


Berova t1_j6op6w6 wrote

Wow, there are so many issues with this forecast including contradictions, it's completely useless.


chehov t1_j6oassp wrote

That’s a prediction only.