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Jingocat t1_j6ddoxz wrote

>“We talked with officers, and they say that if hostilities begin, then 90 percent of conscripts will think about how to desert,” Azarov said. “They won’t take part in hostilities. At least they will try not to take part.”

Can you imagine? That would be nuts.


ICameToUpdoot t1_j6e4q9u wrote

So something like 10% of the military and the government vs 90% of the military and a popular uprising... Think that would be skipping the civil war and just straig up overthrowing the leaders almost peacefully.


tdring22 t1_j6e71qz wrote

This doesn't account for the Russian troops in Belarus though


PumpkinManGuy t1_j6edfsn wrote

Imagine the Russia we know trying to fight a war on two fronts.


tdring22 t1_j6edpio wrote

If 90% of the army deserts then all that's left is civilians which Russia has more experience controlling


PumpkinManGuy t1_j6edy41 wrote

I really don't think that the 90% who desert would be keen on seeing their families stomped down like that.


tdring22 t1_j6eelky wrote

I hope so. I honestly think at this point Belarus tieing up Ukrainian troops on the border is the best he can hope for but time will tell


Staerke t1_j6fcjss wrote

These conscripts don't want to die for Putin, who says they won't want to die for their families and their homes


black641 t1_j6haoet wrote

No military could hope to control 90% of a country's population. Not the US, not China, no one. If 90% of the population wants you out of their home, you're gonna leave one way or the other. Trying to do otherwise would be like standing on the beach and yelling at a tsunami to back up.


realnrh t1_j6g0w6s wrote

I strongly suspect that the Russian troops in Belarus are the ones who could pay the bribes to not get sent to Ukraine. If faced with actual fighting in Belarus, they'll again take the life-saving way out.


plipyplop t1_j6dezem wrote

And they're armed. I bet there are even field grade officers who're like, "War? Nah, fuck that noise..."


jagnew78 t1_j6f8bc3 wrote

One of the major realizations Britain had in WWII prior to the bombing of Britain happening was how critical morale was to the standing army. Not only keeping them well fed and warm, but also showing them that officers and command cared about them and weren't spending their lives needlessly. And also crucially that what they were fighting for mattered.

Russia has yet to come to this realization


plipyplop t1_j6f933n wrote

That kind of unbridled emperor-like god syndrome is familiar to russia. Everything that has happened to them is like a trickle-down of abuse that seems to perpetuate itself, from one generation to the next. Since every war it has fought seems to be a human meat-wave of satisfying results, little needs be changed other than the equipment. Hence, why you are correct: "Russia has yet to come to this realization".


gechu t1_j6gzazd wrote

This is why Wagner is critical to Russia's success. Those mercs are in it for the money.


dontcallmeatallpls t1_j6fymig wrote

This literally already happened. Luka was supposed to join the war on day 1. His military refused. Why? Because they aren't shit people who want to kill their Ukrainian brothers. As it turns out, Russians aren't being forced to kill Ukrainians, they choose to, and their only qualm with it is they want it to be somebody else dying to do it.

Police state my ass, they have a choice. This proves it.


Wizywig t1_j6g3adu wrote

This is why Belarus has avoided the war. He knows that it will cause him to either send his loyalists to fight and die leaving him undefended or sending in non loyalists to bolster the Ukrainian forces.

Lose/lose situation.

Hopefully this teaches other wannabe dictators: side with a maniac and learn just how quickly you get thrown to the wolves.


WaterIsGolden t1_j6edd7r wrote

Not nuts at all. Just humans that prefer not to kill other humans.


[deleted] t1_j6enboc wrote



isawagoose t1_j6eqznp wrote

>Naw, they signed up to kill people.

Do you not know what a conscript is?


[deleted] t1_j6ercr4 wrote



isawagoose t1_j6et5z4 wrote

A conscript is someone who is drafted into military service involuntarily. A concript cannot have "signed up to kill people," because a person who signed up is, by definition, not a conscript.


Otterfan t1_j6eqar4 wrote

Almost everyone in the Belarus army is drafted. They didn't sign up for anything, other than not going to jail.


spannerNZ t1_j6gbjih wrote

It's become a truism "suppose they held a war and nobody came".


100percentwhey t1_j6dbcc4 wrote

Wouldn't the government be overthrown if the conscripts deserted?


Core2score t1_j6dh83t wrote

Very likely, and Lukashenko knows it which is why he doesn't want to be dragged into Putin's ugly mess in Ukraine.


DeekALeek t1_j6dnc18 wrote

Not to mention: Lukashenko didn’t even win re-election and he knows that he’s extremely unpopular as a result of not honoring the election. If Belarus is dragged into Ukraine by Russia, the people of Belarus will revolt and the government supporters will be vastly outnumbered. It’ll look like Iran except with snow and ice.


Core2score t1_j6dtc1x wrote

And with a much smaller military than Iran iirc


IngsocIstanbul t1_j6eg6rp wrote

And this time Russia doesn't exactly have as many spare troops to help with


Temporary-Priority13 t1_j6ekuln wrote

Russia has more than enough spare troops to assist just over a third of their overall force is tied up in Ukraine, but a situation like that would be dealt with by their security forces as they did in Kazakstan.


CyanConatus t1_j6enlkj wrote

Depends how much mobilization the Russian population will tolerate.

They are already signs of internal issues with a mere 0.4% mobilization and that will get worse with time.

Could they do more? I'm sure they could. I'm just not sure how much higher.


Temporary-Priority13 t1_j6eo77w wrote

What I was getting at is military Russia has something like 1.3 million active personnel with 500k in Ukraine currently so they would have the military manpower to deal with a power struggle Belarus, but that task wouldn’t fall down to the Military it would fall on Russias many internal security agencies which are all essentially military forces.

Population wies nothing will change as the Russians have pretty much just done as their leaders have told them for centuries, thousands more will go to their deaths in Ukraine and in the end the Russian people will celebrate it as some second patriotic war against fascism. I’ve had many great friends from Russia over the years but their mindset is just something else, it’s like an acceptance that they will do as they are told when they are told and there is no other way.


CyanConatus t1_j6eqzqa wrote

While I agree with you the most part. I just want to point out this part you said.

"Population wies nothing will change as the Russians have pretty much just done as their leaders have told them for centuries"

Not really. There have been a few revolutions, including one that wiped out the entire family of Tsar. And I'd wager that Putin has less authority than a Tsar with "Divine ancestry"

All I'm saying is that there is historical precident that would conflict when you say "centuries"

Now since ww2? Sure maybe


Phage0070 t1_j6feux7 wrote

> Russia has something like 1.3 million active personnel with 500k in Ukraine currently so they would have the military manpower to deal with a power struggle Belarus

It is important to realize that not everyone in the military is a grunt with a rifle. There is a bunch of supporting apparatus behind the front line military troops so you can't just say "1.3 million - 500k = plenty left to suppress a rebellion". You aren't going to send the logistics department to go fight rebels.


bunkkin t1_j6gokfk wrote

>You aren't going to send the logistics department to go fight rebels.

Russia: "you know what? we just might"


Reddvox t1_j6i936n wrote

Russia: "A logistics department? What would they do?"


Areat t1_j6ehh4w wrote

Iran sadly failed, though.


Killgore122 t1_j6ho92j wrote

No it hasn’t, go to r/NewIran, and you can see it hasn’t stopped.


durz47 t1_j6eq4z0 wrote

But what if he was offered the rank of colonel?


MrCartmenes t1_j6h2wwf wrote

Putin’s Ugly Mess is the name of Lukanhesko’s sex tape


Hour_Landscape_286 t1_j6erdhr wrote

Also, after seeing what Ukraine has done to Russia, I doubt if he wants to open that can of whoop-ass.


webs2slow4me t1_j6dkdsy wrote

The problem is the country current has a ton of Russian military in it. They might be able to prop up the regime, but it would at least be a distraction for Putin.


Core2score t1_j6durp1 wrote

I suspect it would be more than just a distraction for him seeing how he needs all hands on deck in Ukraine, but even just a distraction would be disastrous for Putin. The only reason he might want Belarus fighting with him is to keep some Ukrainian forces tied up and away from the main theater in donbas.. I mean even Putin isn't stupid enough to think Belarus could hope to occupy Kyiv.

So if it backfires, and he ends up being the one needing to divert troops to quell a popular uprising in Belarus he would've found yet another way to screw himself.


ArthurBonesly t1_j6ed1uv wrote

It would be an incredibly expensive distraction that Russia can't afford right now. Not to mention Poland and the Baltics (independent of NATO) would proudly fund a resistance movement just to piss off Russia while having the international plausible deniability to say "what you gonna do about it?" Every step of the way.


agwaragh t1_j6g6vtr wrote

They have some staging areas but they don't control any territory or supply routes. If push came to shove, they'd be easy pickings for the locals.


FM-101 t1_j6f3r4w wrote

Yes. Even people in top military positions have said they won't fight Ukraine. They fucking hate luka and he knows it. That's most likely why putin has flooded the Belarusian military with russian troops.


zaaxuk t1_j6dnc4f wrote

Most their border is swamp and is not possible to put a invasion force over, the small amount that is left has been set up to be a killing field


Core2score t1_j6dh1sn wrote

Of course they won't. There's not much they could hope to accomplish in Ukraine and getting the army involved in an unwinnable war will almost certainly be regime suicide for Belarus and that insecure dork Lukashenko knows it.


Initial_E t1_j6ffnzx wrote

They may not fight, but what about occupying? Loot, plunder and rape?


Core2score t1_j6glhwy wrote

They couldn't because there is strong armed Ukrainian presence at the border with Belarus.


Hot-Delay5608 t1_j6e20mf wrote

Belarus as the new Hungary of Europe and of course Hungary as the old Hungary that is reliably attaching itself to every loosing side in every major war in Europe in the last century.


domestication_never t1_j6faq5a wrote

If Belarus enters the war, I could see it being made an example of from NATO. US will let Ukraine know all the unhardened targets from satellite and let them hit whatever it wants with the HIMARS and drones. The country is already on the verge of revolution, if they see symbols of power hit repeatedly and rapidly from Ukraine it's game over. Ukraine for sure has a longer reach than Belarus in the war.


autotldr t1_j6dcpbd wrote

This is the best tl;dr I could make, original reduced by 83%. (I'm a bot)

> The prediction by Alyaksandr Azarov, who represents an association of former Belarusian security officials, comes amid conflicting signals about whether Lukashenka may finally decide to commit Belarusian troops to the Ukraine invasion, now in its 12th month.

> "Everyone, including Lukashenka, understands that Ukraine is not going to attack, and will not attack, the territory of Belarus. It seems to me that this is more aimed at the Belarusian audience and the Russian audience" - at Russian President Vladimir Putin, Azarov said.

> The Institute for the Study of War, a U.S.-based think tank, said Russian forces are clearly using Belarusian military infrastructure, including bases, supply chains, and railroads, but that there is no indication that Russian forces are starting to position themselves for offensive operations in Belarus.

Extended Summary | FAQ | Feedback | Top keywords: Ukraine^#1 Belarusian^#2 Russian^#3 Belarus^#4 force^#5


3434rich t1_j6eg02k wrote

They’re gonna be like the Irish in “Braveheart “...Awesome!


chatoka t1_j6eaugn wrote

I wish they would fight…. Now….against Lukashenko


MicrowaveBurns t1_j6exl8j wrote

Easier said than done with Russian troops already everywhere in Belarus


wires_dont_talk t1_j6gd8wf wrote

If Belarus enters this war, something needs to be done such as threaten Belarus since Belarus doesn't have nuclear capabilities. They can't let two fucking countries join in a war with Ukraine, fuck that nonsense.


Downtown_Counter_395 t1_j6ffwxk wrote

Fight battle hardened Ukraines. ! Under Lukashenkas orders ! Crazy


Torino1O t1_j6flrfa wrote

Time to rotate the Belarus battalion fighting for Ukraine to the Belarus border, make sure they get to tell there friends in Minsk they're heading home.


arlechinu t1_j6f89w6 wrote

I wonder how the percentages would be different if Russia would be doing well with their war plans. I fear a lot of them would happily join a winning war…


Bierum t1_j6eowht wrote

Nope, they´d be glad to be rid of a parcel of land already occupied by Brasilian illigal immigrants..


oldaliumfarmer t1_j6djumu wrote

Most Belarusian officers are Russian trained they know how to put a gun to conscripts heads or to their families heads. Don't count them out. Mutiny is rare.


FoulFell t1_j6dwfo9 wrote

Mutiny is rare? Are you just blindly ignoring the fratricide the Russian army has endured? It is not rare in this war


Oldalliumfarmer t1_j6dwq3n wrote

Nobody is marching on Minsk or Moscow.


FoulFell t1_j6dx1zy wrote

You think mutiny is marching and open protest demonstrations? 🫥 Mutiny looks like being at the training center and offing the training officer. It's not going to be like some broad demonstration. That's a warped perception of what the reality is.


LatterTarget7 t1_j6ek71q wrote

No but Russian soldiers are killing each other and their officers.


MartianRecon t1_j6es706 wrote

Literally no one is talking about mutiny they're talking about fragging officers and refusing orders.


lordofedging81 t1_j6fxwop wrote

Lukashenko almost got overthrown a few years ago, Putin saved him.