CyanConatus t1_j6enlkj wrote
Reply to comment by Temporary-Priority13 in Amid Worries Over Russian Forces In Belarus, Former Security Officer Says Belarusian Conscripts Won't Fight by -Fuck-You-Charles-
Depends how much mobilization the Russian population will tolerate.
They are already signs of internal issues with a mere 0.4% mobilization and that will get worse with time.
Could they do more? I'm sure they could. I'm just not sure how much higher.
Temporary-Priority13 t1_j6eo77w wrote
What I was getting at is military Russia has something like 1.3 million active personnel with 500k in Ukraine currently so they would have the military manpower to deal with a power struggle Belarus, but that task wouldn’t fall down to the Military it would fall on Russias many internal security agencies which are all essentially military forces.
Population wies nothing will change as the Russians have pretty much just done as their leaders have told them for centuries, thousands more will go to their deaths in Ukraine and in the end the Russian people will celebrate it as some second patriotic war against fascism. I’ve had many great friends from Russia over the years but their mindset is just something else, it’s like an acceptance that they will do as they are told when they are told and there is no other way.
CyanConatus t1_j6eqzqa wrote
While I agree with you the most part. I just want to point out this part you said.
"Population wies nothing will change as the Russians have pretty much just done as their leaders have told them for centuries"
Not really. There have been a few revolutions, including one that wiped out the entire family of Tsar. And I'd wager that Putin has less authority than a Tsar with "Divine ancestry"
All I'm saying is that there is historical precident that would conflict when you say "centuries"
Now since ww2? Sure maybe
Phage0070 t1_j6feux7 wrote
> Russia has something like 1.3 million active personnel with 500k in Ukraine currently so they would have the military manpower to deal with a power struggle Belarus
It is important to realize that not everyone in the military is a grunt with a rifle. There is a bunch of supporting apparatus behind the front line military troops so you can't just say "1.3 million - 500k = plenty left to suppress a rebellion". You aren't going to send the logistics department to go fight rebels.
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