For me, when I read the note he left to his daughter, I thought to myself that’s something I would carry close to my heart forever. I wish had parents that loved me like that and expressed it. That would mean more to me than the cumulative relationship I had with my parents. I still struggle with feeling loved.

Both my parents were pretty much absent in my life. My Dad had full custody, but was abusive and neglectful. I maybe saw my Mom 6 months between when my parents divorced when I was 6 and when she passed when I was 20.

Both parents being alive and present is ideal, but knowing you’re loved matters a lot. Maybe I’m biased, but I don’t think he made the wrong choice. She’ll know forever she made her fathers life worth it.

I don’t think anyone from the outside is in a position to judge that decision.

Absolutely heart wrenching, but such an incredible book.

I'll look at their 10k's when I have some time later and get back to you. Off the top of my head, neither seems like they have great growth prospects and Zurich is heavy into reinsurance which has been getting killed by CAT losses.

RemindMe! 8 hours

That’s way higher than average. Generally, you want your combined ratio under 1. Also, more so than the property, social inflation has been one of the main drivers of increased loss costs. Liability claims are far more costly for carriers than properly claims.

🫡

His DD was high effort, but he wasn’t looking at industry specific metrics and kind of missed the entire point of why they have the valuation they do.

During this bear market, everyone has just pointed at PE as the end all be all for all companies. It seems like everyone thinks every single company is going to be valued like INTL, or that INTL is a buy without digging deeper into their reason for their valuations. In an industry like insurance that perspective is even more skewed, because CAT losses can wreck earnings, but that does not necessarily indicate anything about future performance.

They have strong growth, are transitioning smoothly to the next gen of insurance products, good retention, a solid balance sheet and brand value. I think this is a losing bet.

War is an automatic exclusion on all policies 🤓

They really are a great company top to bottom. Great to work with and great to be a customer of.

OR MORE

To ensure adherence to the plan and have a 3rd party guaranteeing the first party’s assets, or lack thereof. Again, it’s the same concepts of compliance and risk management. This is done to avoid contagions like the 2008 GFC.

Right? Why even try to argue when you clearly have zero understanding of complex financial concepts. It’s fucking complicated, but not black magic, with a sprinkle of fraud mixed in. I don’t expect anyone, except for specific niches of industry professionals to understand the inner workings of it.

> A synthetic GIC includes an asset ownership component and a contractual component that is intended to be valued at book value. The associated assets backing the contract’s book value are owned and held in the name of the plan or the plan’s trustee. Such associated assets typically consist of a diversified fixed income portfolio, including but not limited to treasury, government, mortgage, and/or corporate securities of high average credit quality. To support the book value obligation, the contract-holder relies first on any associated assets and then, to the extent those assets are insufficient, the financial backing of the wrap issuer. Wrap contracts can be issued by banks, insurance companies, or other financial institutions.

Again, you clearly don’t know what you’re talking about lol

Even if the combined yield in a hypothetical synthetic GIC portfolio was 0 (they weren’t) and insurers expect that portion of their investment portfolio to be lower, rates simply increase for policy holders. It’s not magic and they all abide by the same rules.

1. Not a scam. Insurers adhere to both GAAP and SAP principles which have different ways of valuing assets. Under SAP principles, insurers also have to have a certain amount of their investments in fixed income to ensure policyholder surplus and is reflected as "synthetic GIC".
2. You clearly do not have any idea how diversification, or insurance works. Reinsurance is essentially to avoid large losses and spread risk. There are specific company's who specialize in reinsurance like Lloyd's of London, SwissRe, MunichRe, GenRe and GallagherRe to name a few. It's not "all insurance companies". Spreading risk between different ocean cargo vessels a few hundred years ago is how Lloyd's was established as the first insurer, which is essentially the same principle as reinsurance.

It depends on the characteristics and exposures of the risk you're insuring.

Managing the cost of risk can be done in a few ways, but assuming you're talking about personal lines your best bet is balancing risk transfer (insurance) and risk retention (deductibles). For example, having a $0 deductible on your car insurance typically isn't worth the additional premium it costs you. You're better off retaining losses below a dollar threshold where you're comfortable, because first dollar coverage is expensive as shit.

I work in the commercial E&S sector, so that's where my expertise is, but the same fundamental concept of managing the cost of risk applies to any individual, or organization.

Always do electronically with payments. Most of everyone in the industry has transitioned to that method of payment. Moving money around by mail takes a lot longer now than it did a few years ago.

I think it depends on your time frame. Puts would have been a good play a little while ago because CAT losses have been bad this whole year, especially Q4, but now that's probably prices in. I wouldn't bet against them long term tho. I still think they have room for considerable growth.

FYI, Chubb and Hartford are good carriers to go to for better customer service. Generally, overall customer experience is highly variable customer to customer. On top of that, the insurance industry is pretty understaffed at the moment, especially in the claims department, so that may have caused some lag in settlement.

Were your claims strictly property? Liability losses are adjusted differently than property and typically take longer to investigate and settle.

Maybe, but Progressive is similar to Tesla is discussed in that it isn't exclusively a traditional insurer. They are pretty heavy into insuretech and their ease of use is unmatched.

I agree, but Progressive is also probably the most successful insurer in transitioning to insuretech. They aren't necessarily a standard insurance company. I haven't gone over their financials, so I can't give you a completely informed and educated opinion, but there is a lot more to consider than just P/E. They very well could continue to expand and cut down on expenses. Their brand recognition is unmatched and they have streamlined their business for customer ease of use on both the insured and retailer side to an impressive degree.

Insurance professional here and if you want to discuss financial stability, especially ability to service policyholder obligations, you need to include insurance specific ratios (e.g. liquidity, leverage, profitability, solvency, efficiency, capacity, growth). You can check out the NAIC website and AM Best for financial info on insurers.

Overpriced? Probably, but they also just became the largest auto insurer in the US and speaking from personal experience are still expanding, they seem to be competing on every single business auto submission.

Close to insolvency? Highly doubt it.

Edit: CAT losses have been horrible industry wide the last two years. See the two tidbits from their 2021 10k below in regards to commercial growth and property combined ratio. Property premiums will be adjusted accordingly with future CAT modeling and I expect Progressive to continue to grow their commercial sector.

​

>The Commercial Lines business reached $8.0 billion in NPW, achieving 51% growth at an 88.9 CR in 2021, in large part due to growth in our commercial auto business

​

>Underwriting expenses and non-weather losses were both below our forecasts for the year, but significant catastrophe losses during 2021 added 31.0 points, net of reinsurance, to our combined ratio.