28carslater t1_j64az07 wrote

Many would argue the assessment system is broken, in more recent years some of the gov't entities have been spot assessing recent buys effectively punishing the new owners.

That's a fair amount of people there, but something else to remember is much of the new SFH has been in Cranberry and along 68 because the taxes are somewhat tolerable. In this some parts of this county the same properties would have double the taxes and not be feasible to build in the first place.


28carslater t1_j3n7rlg wrote

Through Dec 15 (Peoples):

Budget: $81

Nov-15-Dec-15: $158

Commodity: $8.1350 per MCF ($3.36 last Dec).

Thermostat @ 66F

1970s construction, insulated walls and attic though all original.

Edit: Good news is spot is $3.97 but it seems the companies are billing on October prices despite the 100% commodity price drop.


28carslater t1_j27ovjm wrote

Prior to my career in IT I was an automotive wholesaler, I could talk to you for hours about automotive valuations and auction data. I can also tell you in April of 2020 Manheim registered to my knowledge the only double digit average drop ever at 11%, which then rebounded and went three points over March 2020 by the end of May. If you had told me prior to 2020 this would happen I wouldn't believe you, because such a swing industry wide is stunning. I was still working part time in 2008 when the world fell apart, I don't recall we saw such monthly swings as an industry then but if we did it was the last time prior to April 2020.

In 2014 I argued on average the block as a whole was 30% higher than it should be, and every year after it rose causing the banks to predict a drop scheduled after 2017 when 2012-15 lease inventory would start to hit CPO remarketing. My absolute favorite part of this is Morgan Stanley was famously predicting an extreme bear case of -50% by 2021 :D

Then I was skeptical but like many I chat with in and outside of the industry we saw a +/- 10% decline coming which never came. Looking at the chart in the article the pricing was in the 125 range in 2017, in the link you provided the chart now is 202.6 in six years down from 230s or more than 100% higher in a short time. Before the world blew up the second time this century, it looks to have been around 140 which was already higher than the predicted bull case by 15 points. Now that dealers are all sitting on inventory in the 200-230 range period (depending on when acquired since 2021), you think there will be a 60 point drop which would literally bankrupt most of the used industry who would then be 30%+ negative on their inventory sunk costs? I'd like everything to return to the mean as well because none of the valuations since March 2020 of anything are real but I don't see it happening. Just like we didn't see any drop as predicted in 2017, dealers will employ the same wholesale and retail tactics to keep the used market stable.

On Carvana et al this is the only major variable I see and perhaps the implosion of the VC used car companies may trigger something unexpected, but Hertz started dumping its inventory into a rising market and didn't trigger a pullback at all. I asked around a little when Hertz was going on, the liquidation company purposely was not releasing inventory as it sold as you would think but only in small chunks and held back everything else until those chunks cleared. If Carvana went Ch 7 I would expect more of the same, in my view something unexpected and uncontrolled would have to happen to trigger a major market shift in the short to mid term.


28carslater t1_j27d8ck wrote

>Then absolutely get rid of the car. The used car market is dropping and will continue to drop over the next year, so you're going to get less and less for it the longer you wait.

Just like real estate is dropping, eh? Also like real estate, dropping 3% after rising 30% isn't really "dropping" (BONUS: You're not supposed to pay over MSRP for any automobile that's not a niche or exotic model, ever, so back to MSRP prices is not a "drop" either).


28carslater t1_j27bd3w wrote

You don't understand, depending on where you are and your needs it is very difficult to not own private transportation.

>A walkable city.

You've never seen pictures of Pgh have you? Aside from some areas in the City proper/peninsular, its nothing but steep hills and a literal mountain. I grew up about two miles from the second steepest city street on the planet. This is why normal long time residents simultaneously mock and respect the pedal biker extremists.

>With great uber and lyft options.

I had an employee who didn't own a car and used this strategy. Our office was Downtown so he took the "T" (light rail) for $100/mo (don't recall exact figure) on the yearly pass and used Uber for groceries etc. from his house in the suburbs. In 2018 we looked at his receipts and Uber was about $150/mo at the time, combined with the T pass he was sitting $250. Now he rightly argued it was still cheaper than anything but a cheap lease or paid off car between payment, fuel, and insurance but that was 2018. I don't know what Uber is going for today, the math may no longer be there.

>And pub transpo is awrsome

Based on the phrase "public transport" you sound as if you're from a Commonwealth nation. Firstly, "public transport" mostly sucks everywhere in the US and especially here in Pgh. There are a swath of City neighborhoods with regular busses but because of the geography of three rivers, bridges, tunnels, and hills or mountains very regular bus service drops off outside of Zone 2, 4, and 5. There is a light rail service but it only flows from Downtown to the South Hills, and it sucks too (it was built on existing remnants of a street car system). The Port Authority is also massively bankrupt all of the time and has essentially failed, for the service it does provide vs cost the ROI is not there and most of it should just be shut down, but I digress. The Pittsburgh region has geographical challenges closer to Switzerland but without the wealth and tax or gov't structure.


28carslater t1_j2786bs wrote

Yinzer bro, I know what you're talking about all too well. I am confused though, if you are leaving the country in June why does any of this matter? Do you think you will get repo'd by then? You and I know all too well you can't not have a car between now and then, yet it doesn't really make sense to get into another one for six months or rent one for the same amount of time. You can't stick this out and dump the car at the end of May before you leave?