2conservative
2conservative t1_je7ijvm wrote
Reply to comment by mytendies in Thoughts on why Big Tech has been rallying and if it’s sustainable? by vwxyzabcdef
Well, that may be but that wasn't really the point. I was just pointing out that in addition to Big Tech, people ran to Crypto and Gold. The last two actually make more sense to me since they would be the natural beneficiaries of a failing financial system putting the USD at risk (I'm not saying this is happening - only that a lot of folks are worried it might). The Big Tech injection I think was just a response to a volatile and declining market. Lastly, just like a piece of paper with numbers written on it, Crypto is only as valuable as people think it is. That can be said about almost anything. Art, NFTs, collectibles - anything that provides little function but is valuable for no other reason than because people think it is.
2conservative t1_je6rmhg wrote
Reply to comment by waitplzdontgo in Thoughts on why Big Tech has been rallying and if it’s sustainable? by vwxyzabcdef
Very clever of you. Not sure what you took exception too but I am assuming it was the statement about crypto stocks? So - without getting an exact figure they sort of rocketed up after Mar 10 (maybe 50% or so). And, my soft spot is still there. Quick Question: how many times have you dug your fingers into your ass and stuck them in other peoples faces just to see their reaction?
2conservative t1_je6hx1e wrote
I also heard Big Tech was serving as a flight to safety - maybe not as much as Crypto stocks and to some extent Gold - but yes. As far as the future - you can listen to 15 analysts and you will get 15 different predictions. But, both Dalio and and Jeremy Grantham believe there is more pain to come. Not sure in what form that will be (another Black Swan event or perhaps a slow grind as investors begin to wrap their heads around the shrinking margins companies will face in the future) but - that both say another 20 - 50% could come out of the market. That said - if you have a timeline more than 10 years out - I wouldn't worry about it. Pick some very good stocks, buy and hold. I was strongly considering Meta when it dropped below a 100 and TSLA when it dropped to 100 and passed on both. Kicking myself now - but oh well. I would consider picking up some good stocks and start dollar cost averaging in. Buy dips and if the market suddenly tanks - put everything left into those same stocks. Buffet isn't a fan of selling his holdings (he will but not too often). He takes all the dividends from his diverse holdings and uses that cash to pick up stocks on the cheap or add to his holdings on dips. It's a great strategy and really quite conservative/safe.
2conservative t1_jeavcmn wrote
Reply to comment by chuck_portis in Thoughts on why Big Tech has been rallying and if it’s sustainable? by vwxyzabcdef
Its all about the debt they carry. Or return they are getting on other long term assets. For instance, the banks are in trouble for multiple reasons but investing in long term bonds at 3% and then having the FEDs jack rates up to 7% - that wasn't good for their bottom line. Also fixed mortgages at 3.25% - they are losing money on those now. Might be one of the reasons Wells Fargo said they were exiting the Mortgage business a few months ago. A year ago, carrying debt was smart and all the big companies did it (why not at 1 or 2%). That is cheap and allows them to use cash for more productive purposes. From Google:
How Much Debt Does Apple Carry? The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Apple had debt of US$111.1b at the end of December 2022, a reduction from US$122.8b over a year.