BertAnsink
BertAnsink t1_j99vme3 wrote
Reply to Guys I want to read a book by Hairy-Thought6679
"Option Pricing & Volatility" by Sheldon Natenberg.
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More important is to develop a picture in your mind on how price changes with changes in underlying and volatility.
BertAnsink t1_j6ou7yn wrote
Reply to Thoughts on natural gas by Desperate-Tennis3891
The low price is only for this months and next months contracts. Like June is already over $3. So if you want to buy and hold it, it will cost you money for rolling your positions.
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There is normally seasonality too for the QG contracts.
BertAnsink t1_j6obj6u wrote
Reply to Am I crazy? Or am I so sane that you just blew your mind? #NoStopLoss #RiskMgmt by Alarming_Math1254
Why use micro futures instead of the real deal?
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Ie -52 MES you could do -5 ES.
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-550 MNQ you could do -55 NQ.
BertAnsink t1_j6b5yz0 wrote
Reply to comment by United-Display-386 in How many % do you often set for cut loss? by United-Display-386
Yes usually 2-3% of total portfolio value.
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I usually take ATR(9) as a guide for how far away the SL needs to be.
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So say I am trading ES futures with $50.000 in my account. I would put the stop at $1000. ATR(9) for last trading day is 60 points. For ES futures it's $50 per point. So 1x future with a 60 point drop would give -$3000. In this case I would shift to MES that do $5 per point, ie 4x MES with a 60 point loss will give -$1200. Set stop at 50 points in that case.
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There is more to all this since I often trade futures against shares. Ie I own the shares and sell futures short. In this case I can short more futures since I have long shares that cover the loss if I am wrong.
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On options I usually sell them, either puts at a point where I think the stock is low and has high IV or calls after I think we have reached a peak. Collecting the premiums gives you more opportunities than pure directional betting where it's simply win or loss.
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I also try to diversify into uncorrelated assets where opportunities arise. Ie last year I have traded a lot of WTI futures spreads which was good business. The market has stabilized for now but I am looking at QG (Natgas) since that went down the toilet over last month.
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I keep a daily excel sheet which calculates total portfolio volatility so I have a track of Value at Risk for a given day.
BertAnsink t1_j6b2uy4 wrote
Around 2-3% total portfolio value.
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And size the position so that your SL is not likely to be hit in one day.
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If you have lost on your trade, it obviously means that you can loose next on next trade as SL will be 2% of your new portfolio size.
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2-3% seems low but think of this. If you loose 25% of your portfolio value you need to make 33% to come back to break even. Loose 50% and you need to make 100%. Loose 75% and you need to make 400%.
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Lack of risk managment is why people don't tend to recover from the inmense losses posted here.
BertAnsink t1_j25qd98 wrote
Calling something energy positive can be done in a lot of creative ways.
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Fusion on earth only really works between tritium and deuterium. Problem is that tritium is not found in nature and you need to breed that, in a nuclear fission reactor so that is costing additional energy.
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Then if you build a plant, there is all sorts of auxillary systems that require power, think coolant, HVAC, control systems etc etc.
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Then the next hurdle even if you manage to get a net gain in energy, there is commercial viability. You need a army of technicians to run your facility, the plant has a limited lifetime in which it needs to offset it's building cost.
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It will probably be viable somewhere in the future but I don't expect it during my lifetime.
BertAnsink t1_j9alr6o wrote
Reply to Is it weird? by O2148
On average retail looses money daytrading.
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So literally all the broker has to do is take the other side of the trade for all their clients and they would automatically make money if that was their objective.
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People talk about PFOF as a business model for brokers, however there is another potentially more powerful revenue stream, they can sell data concerning their client's positioning. When trading into a lit market, ie through regular channels there is companies that can compile this data for themselves, but one of the issues with PFOF is that the trades never reach the exchange, ie only the MM that handles the orderflow know's the positioning of the clients.