BrangdonJ t1_jdmfqop wrote

I would expect them to price Starship at or below Falcon 9 from very early on. That lets them move payloads from Falcon 9 to Starship. Every Starship launch is an opportunity to practice landing of the first and second stages. It makes sense to include commercial payloads for their practice launches even if they do so at a loss, because they need to launch anyway and some revenue is better than none.

They'll charge what the market will bear, and it won't bear more than Falcon 9 (for payloads Falcon 9 can carry) because Starship doesn't have the track record of success.


BrangdonJ t1_j9yphih wrote

I see the switch to methane as part of a sea change in the launch industry. Part of the realisation that hydrogen sucks as a first stage fuel, which is significant because NASA in particular were fixated on it for decades (and still are for SLS). Part of the New Space willingness to rethink old assumptions and ways of doing things. The switch is a symptom rather than a cause, but still a sign of the times.