BufferUnderpants

BufferUnderpants t1_j1avy9v wrote

> Printing a trillion dollars and handing it out like candy isn’t nearly enough to cause 10% inflation in a country with a 21 trillion dollar economy.

How do you reach that conclusion? I'm not sure it's 1-to-1 extra cash on hand and GDP.

Also, don't get me wrong, supply issues are part of the equation, which is also why lockdowns+aid was going to be a double whammy, but it only adds up. Again, I think this was the right choice, but dude, didn't your politicians warn you?

I've seen estimates of the war in Europe adding 1.5% percent points of inflation

It's a combination of internal and external factors, but pumping a trillion dollars into a halted economy is an important one, supply chains would have had trouble keeping up with the demand even with things rolling as usual.

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BufferUnderpants t1_j1aqaae wrote

Man this is weird, you really think the US can superpower its way out of basic economics and that there's some stab-in-the-back kind of situation that caused inflation in the way economists would say caused inflation in any case.

Also it wasn't Government spending, it was expansion of money supply, different things, if it was taxes or reserves spent on public works it'd look completely different.

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BufferUnderpants t1_j1ao43z wrote

But in that timeline would the lockdowns have happened? Shutting down the economy and giving people money to compensate for the money their frozen jobs couldn't provide was going to cause inflation, 100% guaranteed.

Them's the breaks, I think it was the right choice but that was the inevitable consequence. We turned the sliders of the economy in the way that causes inflation to occur.

Stock market crash or not, this is an issue of money supply vs supply of everything else, way more fundamental.

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BufferUnderpants t1_j19mwx1 wrote

I think you’re omitting the part where like a trillion dollar was injected into the economy as productivity dropped

That was going to cause inflation inevitably, it was a trade off, we traded making the lockdown viable for households for inflation, grinding the economy to a halt was never going to come for free

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BufferUnderpants t1_j19hl24 wrote

Since when is it controversial that jacking up interest rates moves the needle towards recession in countries? It's a real risk, it's not all conspiracies made in dimly lit rooms, it's pretty well accepted that when you constrain monetary supply, you risk recession.

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