Submission Statement:
In many ways, the borderless nature of the internet is essential to its functioning as a global communications channel. The fact that a hypertext link can point to anything that exists anywhere in cyberspace is something that has long been taken for granted. Yet, in other ways, the open and unrestricted internet is more of an illusion than reality. On multiple levels, the net is fragmenting into separate domains that are no longer able or willing to connect. This fragmentation – sometimes referred to as the ‘Splinternet’– is happening along geopolitical lines, pointing to a potential future where ‘global connectivity’ is not so global anymore, but separated by digital iron curtains set up by rivalling great powers – with the US, the EU, China, and Russia being the primary actors.
This article was first published in FARSIGHT - Futures Reviewed. A quarterly futures publication by Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.
Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies: In the 1990s two scholars proposed that the broad strokes of Western history can be understood as a series of cycles switching between states of stability and turmoil and spanning roughly 80 years each.
According to their theory, we may be heading towards the end of one cycle and the beginning of a new one – meaning that we will enter a period of crisis and global re-ordering.
The ‘Fourth Turning’ theory of history rests on a series of shaky assumptions, but is there some truth to it?
This article was first published in FARSIGHT - Futures Reviewed. The quarterly publication from Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.
Submission statement: Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
Some technological advances are so great that they create ruptures in our understanding of what is possible. Eighty years ago, such a rift took place via the invention of the atom bomb, transforming the way we conceive of warfare and global order.
Today, rapid advancements in scientific and technological progress hold that very same potential. From artificial intelligence to synthetic biology, experts and policymakers are beginning to dissect the potential consequences of adding unfamiliar, highly advanced, and potentially devastating new additions to the toolboxes of adversarial powers.
This article was first published in FARSIGHT. A quarterly publication from Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.
Most of us are familiar with Moore’s Law. Gordon Moore, who first observed that computer capacity grew exponentially, was talking about the density of transistors in integrated circuits, but others (among them the famous futurist Ray Kurzweil) have later reformulated the ‘law’ to refer to the growth of processing power compared to cost – how many calculations per second a computer chip can perform for every USD 100 it costs.
This makes the law robust to changes in technology, extending it backwards to before the invention of the integrated and possibly forwards into the future when new technologies may replace the current siliconbased chip.
This article was first published in FARSIGHT - Futures Reviewed. A quarterly publication from Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.
Submission Statement:
Breaking up in outer space: Will the competition between nation states move into the cosmos? 🌕
In 1967, a historic UN treaty came into force which today, more than five decades later, still forms the basis for international space law.
The Outer Space Treaty was an ambitious document declaring outer space to be a zone for collaboration and peaceful co-existence – a ‘province of all mankind’.
The article was first published in the latest issue of FARSIGHT - Futures Reviewed. The quarterly publication from Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.
Winston Churchill envisioned back in 1931 that in 50 years’ time, humans would “escape the absurdity of growing a whole chicken in order to eat the breast or wing, by growing these parts separately under a suitable medium”.
Fast forward to 2021, where the industry of lab-grown meat is rapidly growing. Funding soared last year, with investments growing sixfold and dozens of new companies entering the race to bring the first lab-grown meat products to market.
Some researchers speculate that, depending on the efficiency of the production process, the rise of the cultured meat industry could actually have a more negative impact on climate change than traditional beef production.
Will lab-grown meat be an animal friendly and sustainable future food?
This Article was first published in FARSIGHT - Futures Reviewed. A publication from Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies
CPHfuturesstudies OP t1_ixl84wv wrote
Reply to Is the unrestricted Internet an illusion? Welcome to the Splinternet. A digital cold war in focus. - Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies by CPHfuturesstudies
Submission Statement: In many ways, the borderless nature of the internet is essential to its functioning as a global communications channel. The fact that a hypertext link can point to anything that exists anywhere in cyberspace is something that has long been taken for granted. Yet, in other ways, the open and unrestricted internet is more of an illusion than reality. On multiple levels, the net is fragmenting into separate domains that are no longer able or willing to connect. This fragmentation – sometimes referred to as the ‘Splinternet’– is happening along geopolitical lines, pointing to a potential future where ‘global connectivity’ is not so global anymore, but separated by digital iron curtains set up by rivalling great powers – with the US, the EU, China, and Russia being the primary actors.
This article was first published in FARSIGHT - Futures Reviewed. A quarterly futures publication by Copenhagen Institute for Futures Studies.